Buyers Test $93k as Spot Outflows Keep Pressure On

• Spot outflows remain heavy, with $92.9M leaving exchanges, limiting upside follow-through.
• Bitcoin stays capped below the descending trendline and stacked EMAs, keeping sellers in control.
• Holding $90k–$93k is critical, while a break below $90k risks a slide toward $88k–$86.8k.

Bitcoin price today trades near $92,800 after failing to hold above short-term resistance and slipping back into a fragile consolidation range. Sellers remain active as repeated spot outflows cap upside attempts, while buyers focus on defending the $90,000 to $93,000 support band to avoid a deeper pullback.

Buyers Step Back As Spot Outflows Persist

Exchange flow data continues to lean against the bulls. On January 7, Bitcoin recorded a $92.9 million net spot outflow, extending a multi-week pattern of capital leaving rather than entering the market.

This matters because price has failed to advance despite these outflows. When Bitcoin trades sideways while coins move onto exchanges, it often reflects holders positioning to sell into strength rather than build long exposure.

Trendline Rejection Keeps Short Term Control With Sellers

On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains pinned below a descending trendline that has capped price since early November. Each approach toward that line has resulted in rejection, reinforcing seller control over short-term structure.

The EMA configuration adds to the pressure. Bitcoin trades below the 50-day EMA near $91,700, the 100-day EMA near $96,500, and the 200-day EMA near $100,100. These averages now form a stacked resistance zone rather than support.

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The Supertrend near $95,100 remains red, confirming that the broader trend has not flipped. Until price closes decisively above that level, sellers retain the upper hand.

Intraday Structure Shows Fragile Support

Lower timeframes highlight the same theme. On the 30-minute chart, Bitcoin is holding an ascending intraday trendline, but momentum has weakened. RSI hovers near the mid-40s to 50 range, showing balance rather than strength. MACD has flattened after a brief recovery attempt, signaling fading upside momentum.

Price action near $93,000 has become pivotal. Buyers have defended this zone multiple times, but each bounce has been smaller than the last. That loss of amplitude often precedes a resolution.

A clean break below $92,000 would expose the $90,700 level, followed by the broader $88,000 to $86,800 demand zone. That area aligns with prior consolidation and Fibonacci support from the recent range.

Macro Narrative Supports Liquidity But Timing Matters

Arthur Hayes’ macro framework remains constructive for Bitcoin over the medium term, but it does not contradict the current technical weakness.

His core argument is simple. U.S. political incentives favor aggressive credit expansion into 2026 to support growth and asset prices, while suppressing energy-driven inflation. In that environment, dollar liquidity rises, and Bitcoin eventually benefits as a monetary asset detached from real-world energy costs.

However, Hayes also makes clear that markets move reflexively. Liquidity can expand while price chops or corrects, especially when positioning is crowded or flows turn defensive.

That is exactly what the charts show now. The long-term liquidity backdrop may be supportive, but near-term traders are reducing exposure and waiting for confirmation before re-engaging.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin remains range-bound with a bearish tilt as long as it trades below declining resistance and the 200-day EMA.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $97,000, followed by acceptance above $100,000, would signal that buyers have regained control and reopened the path toward higher resistance near $108,000.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $90,000 would confirm distribution and expose the $88,000 to $86,800 zone as the next downside target.

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