Buyers Defend $2 As ETF Inflows Offset Heavy Exchange Supply

• Buyers are defending the $1.98–$2.00 zone, slowing downside after late-December volatility.
• Persistent exchange inflows signal ongoing distribution, keeping rallies fragile below key EMAs.
• Steady ETF inflows above $1.18B provide a floor, but XRP needs a $2.22 reclaim to shift momentum.

XRP price today trades near $2.01, stabilizing above a key short-term support zone after a volatile start to 2026. The token is attempting to base following a prolonged downtrend, with buyers stepping in near the $1.90 to $2.00 area even as broader crypto markets remain rangebound. The tension now sits between improving ETF-driven demand and persistent exchange inflows that continue to cap upside momentum.

Buyers Hold Ground Near Long-Term Demand

On the daily chart, XRP continues to respect a broad demand zone that stretches from roughly $1.65 to $1.80, a region that has attracted buyers multiple times since October. Price has not revisited the lower boundary of that zone this week, suggesting selling pressure has slowed after the late-December washout.

However, structure remains fragile. XRP is still trading below its declining trendline drawn from the July peak, and price remains capped beneath the stacked 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which sit between $1.92 and $2.35. That EMA cluster has repeatedly rejected upside attempts since November, keeping the broader trend corrective rather than constructive.

The Supertrend indicator on the daily timeframe remains bearish above price near $2.05, reinforcing that rallies are still being sold into rather than followed.

Short-Term Charts Show Momentum Cooling

Lower timeframes paint a more nuanced picture. On the 30-minute chart, XRP staged a sharp rebound into the $2.06 to $2.08 area before pulling back toward $2.00. Parabolic SAR flipped higher during the rally but has now started to converge again as momentum fades.

RSI on the intraday chart has slipped back toward neutral after briefly pushing into overbought territory. That shift suggests the bounce was driven by short-covering and tactical buying rather than fresh trend participation. Buyers are active, but they are not chasing price higher.

For XRP to regain short-term control, price needs to hold above $1.98 to $2.00 and push through $2.05 with follow-through. Failure to do so risks another slow grind lower toward the mid-$1.90s.

Exchange Flows Still Signal Distribution

Spot flow data remains a headwind. XRP has recorded consistent net inflows to exchanges across recent sessions, including a -$19.5 million netflow reading on Jan. 3. 

That pattern indicates holders are still sending tokens to exchanges, typically a sign of supply preparing to sell rather than accumulate.

ETF Inflows Provide A Counterweight

That supply pressure is being partially offset by continued institutional demand. Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $13.59 million in inflows on Jan. 2, pushing cumulative inflows since launch to $1.18 billion. 

While modest in daily terms, the consistency of ETF demand has helped absorb some of the supply entering the market.

Regulatory And Policy Narrative Lifts Sentiment

Beyond flows, sentiment has been supported by shifts in the regulatory backdrop. Traders have pointed to the departure of SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, a vocal critic of crypto spot ETFs, as a potential turning point. Her exit has been interpreted by some market participants as reducing resistance to a more accommodative policy stance.

Speculation around a possible Market Structure Bill markup on Jan. 15 has also kept policy expectations elevated into the first quarter. That narrative has helped XRP outperform during periods when the broader market has struggled to generate momentum.

Outlook. Will XRP Go Up?

The short-term trend remains neutral to corrective, but downside pressure has eased.

• Bullish case: XRP holds above $1.98 and reclaims $2.22 on a daily close, flipping the EMA cluster and opening room toward $2.60.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $1.90 signals renewed distribution and exposes the $1.75 demand zone.