Bulls Eye $1.47 Reclaim After Historic Loss Spike

• XRP tests $1.3679 as $1.93B weekly realized losses mark biggest capitulation since 2022, historically preceding sharp recoveries.
• Open interest rises 3.85% to $2.44B while volume surges 43.16% to $4.12B, signaling intense selling pressure.
• SBI Holdings launches $64.5M blockchain bond offering XRP rewards to retail investors through 2029.

XRP price today trades near $1.3679, down 1.79% in the past 24 hours as the token tests critical support following the largest weekly realized loss spike since 2022. The move comes as on-chain data shows roughly $1.93 billion in realized losses, signaling intense panic selling that historically has marked market bottoms.

$1.93B Weekly Realized Loss Spike Marks Biggest Capitulation Since 2022

On-chain data shows XRP recorded approximately $1.93 billion in realized losses in a single week, the largest spike since 2022. The last time losses of that magnitude occurred, XRP rallied 114% over the following eight months.

Realized losses measure actual sell transactions at a loss, not paper drawdowns. For losses to surge into the billions, there must be aggressive selling pressure matched by buyers willing to step in at lower levels. Historically, these capitulation events cluster near market bottoms as weak hands are flushed out.

When coins move from short-term traders to longer-term holders during capitulation, it creates a more stable foundation for price. However, sustained recovery will depend on demand stabilization and easing sell pressure amid ongoing macro uncertainty.

Open Interest Rises As Volume Surges Over 43%

XRP Derivative Analysis (Source: Coinglass)

According to Coinglass, XRP’s open interest increased 3.85% to $2.44 billion, while volume surged 43.16% to $4.12 billion. Options volume jumped 68.16% to $2.70 million, with options open interest rising 2.27% to $59.98 million, confirming extreme volatility.

Long/short ratios remain elevated at 2.52 on Binance and 2.40 on OKX. However, the 1-hour rekt data shows zero longs on Binance while shorts hold $596.39 million, indicating the market is positioned for upside but price action is moving lower, creating conditions for potential short covering if support holds.

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When volume surges over 40% alongside rising open interest, it typically indicates new capital entering the market, but in this case, it confirms forced capitulation. The combination of massive realized losses and surging volume suggests the market is clearing weak holders aggressively.

SBI Holdings Launches $64.5M XRP-Reward Bond

SBI Holdings announced a 10 billion yen ($64.5 million) blockchain-based bond aimed at retail investors, combining fixed-income terms with XRP token rewards. The three-year SBI START Bonds carry an annual interest rate between 1.85% and 2.45%, paid semiannually.

Retail investors who subscribe to at least 100,000 yen (approximately $650) and hold an account with SBI VC Trade are eligible for XRP rewards corresponding to their subscription amount. The reward structure is set at 200 yen in XRP per 100,000 yen invested, distributed at issuance and on each interest payment date through 2029.

SBI Holdings established a partnership with Ripple in 2016 and maintains strong ties to the XRP ecosystem. According to CEO Yoshitaka Kitao, the company owns approximately 9% of Ripple Labs. The blockchain bond structure represents a step toward integrating traditional fixed-income products with digital asset infrastructure, targeting retail audiences.

Price Breaks Below All Major EMAs And Bollinger Band Support

On the daily chart, XRP trades below all major moving averages. The 20-day EMA sits at $1.4744, the 50-day at $1.6549, the 100-day at $1.8693, and the 200-day at $2.0939. Bollinger Bands show the middle band at $1.4202, with the upper band at $1.5485 and lower band at $1.2919.

The chart shows:

• Price breaking below Bollinger middle band at $1.4202
• All major EMAs stacked as overhead resistance
• $1.2919 lower Bollinger Band as next support
• Descending trendline from July still intact

XRP dropped from $3.56 all-time high to current levels, marking a 62% correction. The $1.93 billion realized loss spike suggests capitulation is occurring at current levels, historically a bottom signal. However, the structure remains decisively bearish with all EMAs acting as resistance.

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A daily close above $1.4744 would flip the 20-day EMA and signal the first sign of trend exhaustion. Breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at $1.2919 would expose the $1.15 February low. Historical precedent from 2022 suggests the bottom may be in, but confirmation requires stabilization and demand recovery.

Outlook: Will XRP Go Up?

The next move depends on whether XRP can hold $1.2919 and reclaim $1.4744.

• Bullish case: If the $1.93B realized loss spike marks capitulation like in 2022, a hold above $1.2919 with a close above $1.4744 could trigger a 100%+ rally over the following months as distribution ends.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $1.2919 exposes $1.15, with further downside toward $1.00 if realized losses remain elevated. Continued distribution would invalidate the capitulation thesis.

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