IN SUMMARY
- Main scenario: bull on D1. Price at 244.54 above EMA 20/50/200 and positive MACD.
- Strength but with caution: RSI D1 at 71.22 (hot zone) and price near pivot R1 at 257.16.
- Neutral H1: price 244.71 between EMA 20 (237.31) and EMA 50 (246.27), MACD improving but below zero.
- M15 stretched: close 245.32 above upper band (243.49), risk of pullback towards 242.74–240.72.
- High volatility on D1 (ATR 53.41): calibrate risk with ATR and use pivot/EMA for trigger and invalidation.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
D1 (daily)
The outlook remains bullish: the price at 244.54 stays well above EMA 20 (170.83), EMA 50 (112.76), and EMA 200 (63.26), indicating a solid trend structure.
The RSI at 71.22 signals buyer strength but also a potential overheating; it is not a reversal signal, but it advises caution in managing new entries.
The MACD is positive (line 51.13 vs signal 40.34) with a histogram at 10.79, confirming favorable momentum.
The Bollinger Bands (mid 150.96, upper 299.44, lower 2.48) place the price between mid and upper, consistent with a pushing trend.
The ATR at 53.41 highlights a wide volatility regime: stops and targets should be adjusted.
Pivot D1: PP 237.38, R1 257.16, S1 224.75.
H1 (hourly)
Neutral framework. The price at 244.71 is above EMA 20 (237.31) and EMA 200 (220.02), but below EMA 50 (246.27): a compression suggesting balance.
RSI at 53.02 in neutral zone.
The MACD, although below zero (line -6.42, signal -7.51), shows a positive histogram at 1.09, indicating improvement and a possible bullish crossover.
Bands: mid 238.63, upper 263.73, lower 213.54, with ample room for intraday oscillation.
ATR at 9.82, useful for calibrating hourly stops.
Pivot H1: PP 240.72, R1 253.99, S1 231.43.
M15 (short term)
Short-term impulse: close at 245.32 above the upper band (243.49), often a prelude to consolidation or technical pullback.
The price is above EMA 20 (232.33) and EMA 50 (233.33), but below EMA 200 (248.38), which acts as dynamic resistance.
RSI at 68.23, near overbought, consistent with a short-term excess.
MACD positive (line 2.72, signal 0.27, histogram 2.45).
ATR at 5.42, useful for tight stops.
Pivot M15: PP 246.37, R1 248.95, S1 242.74.
KEY LEVELS
| Timeframe | Supports | Resistances | Pivot (PP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | S1 224.75; EMA 20 170.83; BB mid 150.96 | R1 257.16; BB upper 299.44 | 237.38 |
| H1 | S1 231.43; EMA 200 220.02 | R1 253.99; EMA 50 246.27 | 240.72 |
| M15 | S1 242.74; EMA 50 233.33 | R1 248.95; EMA 200 248.38 | 246.37 |
OPERATIONAL SCENARIOS
Bullish (main scenario D1)
As long as the D1 stays above PP 237.38 and especially above S1 224.75, the underlying trend remains favorable.
A clean breakout of 246.27 (EMA 50 H1) and the range 246.37–248.95 (PP–R1 M15) would open space towards 253.99 (R1 H1) and 257.16 (R1 D1).
Short-term invalidation below 242.74 (S1 M15); medium-term below 224.75 (S1 D1).
Risk management: use ATR consistent with the timeframe (approximately 0.5–1.0x ATR; D1 53.41, H1 9.82, M15 5.42).
Bearish
Weakness if the price falls back below 242.74 (S1 M15) and loses 240.72 (PP H1), with confirmation below 231.43 (S1 H1).
In this case, risk of testing 224.75 (S1 D1).
A D1 close below this level would weaken the overall picture.
Invalidation of the bearish scenario with a stable recovery above 246.27 (EMA 50 H1) and 248.95 (R1 M15).
Neutral
Possible sideways phase between 237.38 and 257.16 on the D1, with intraday rotations around 240.72 (PP H1).
In this range, watch out for false breakouts: wait for confirmations from MACD (cross and expanding histogram) and the price position relative to the EMA 50/200 on H1 and M15.
MARKET CONTEXT
The total crypto market capitalization is 3.895 trillion USD, down -1.84% in the last 24 hours.
The BTC dominance is at 57.35%, indicating a market still led by Bitcoin.
The sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) is at 38 (Fear), reflecting a cautious climate that may limit bullish extensions without clear catalysts.
In this context, the relative strength of ZEC on the D1 stands out, but it is advisable to seek intraday confirmations before aiming for breakouts beyond 257.16.
DEFI ECOSYSTEM
The fees on DEX indicate growing activity in certain areas of decentralized finance, useful for assessing the return of risk-on on altcoins.
- Uniswap V3: total 1,783,743,554,616 USD; change 1d -11.69%, 7d +13.54%, 30d +61.14%.
- Fluid DEX: total 122,258,239,694 USD; change 1d +7.93%, 7d +15.29%, 30d +18.32%.
- Uniswap V4: total 89,703,341,223 USD; change 1d +7.86%, 7d -13.83%, 30d -1.96%.
- Curve DEX: total 261,266,972,870 USD; change 1d +89.03%, 7d +169.83%, 30d +275.53%.
- Uniswap V2: total 605,065,606,607 USD; change 1d -3.43%, 7d +803.03%, 30d +926.87%.
These data (not specific to ZEC) show a return of volatility and volumes on some platforms, a scenario that can favor rotations on altcoins, albeit with selectivity.
Disclaimer
Analysis for informational purposes only: does not constitute financial advice. Always use ATR for risk management and pivot/EMA as triggers and invalidation levels.