Breakdown Deepens And $98,500 Comes Into Play

• Bitcoin price today trades near $102,436 after losing a multi-month trendline and falling below all major EMAs.
• BlackRock logged $131M in ETF outflows while spot markets show another $25.5M leaving exchanges, signaling distribution.
• A daily close below $100,000 exposes $98,500, with deeper downside risk toward the $92,000 demand zone.

Bitcoin price today trades near $102,436 after breaking below a multi-month trendline, placing immediate pressure on buyers as price retests the critical $100,000 to $98,500 support band.

BlackRock Outflows Add To Pressure As Spot Distribution Continues

Institutional flows tilted bearish again. BlackRock clients withdrew $131 million from its Bitcoin ETF on Friday. The asset manager has seen repeated outflows over recent sessions, signaling shifting appetite for exposure as volatility rises.

Meanwhile, Coinglass data shows a net spot outflow of $25.50 million over the past twenty-four hours. Price weakness combined with persistent outflows shows that supply is entering the market rather than being held or accumulated. When institutional ETF redemptions and spot inflows to exchanges occur at the same time, downside moves tend to extend.

Trendline Breakdown Turns Structure Cautious

Bitcoin broke below the rising trendline that originated in April. This trendline served as multi-month support, guiding higher lows and reinforcing bullish structure. Once price slipped beneath it, the character of the market changed. Sellers are now defending recovery attempts rather than being forced to chase upside breakouts.

Price currently sits below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. These moving averages form a stacked resistance zone between $107,565 and $111,413. The Supertrend indicator remains red, adding another layer of downside pressure.

Major resistance levels:

• First resistance: $107,565 (20-day EMA)
• Structural resistance: $111,413 (100-day EMA)
• Major ceiling: $116,289, where the previous rejection formed

Support zones now:

• Immediate support: $100,000 to $98,500
• Major demand zone: $92,000, where buyers previously entered aggressively

Losing $100,000 on a daily close would confirm a full retest of the $98,500 liquidity shelf. The deeper support near $92,000 remains the final defensive zone before the market risks a broader correction.

Short-Term Price Compression Signals Imminent Decision

The intraday chart shows Bitcoin forming a narrowing price squeeze. A descending resistance line from November’s high intersects with a rising base forming near $99,000. This structure shows lower highs compressing into a flat support line. It is a classic continuation setup that typically resolves in the direction of prevailing momentum.

On lower timeframes:

• VWAP acts as dynamic resistance
• Price keeps failing at the descending intraday trendline

Unless price breaks above $102,988 and holds, sellers retain control. Buyers are stepping in near $99,000; however, the rebounds lack follow-through. This signals demand at the base, but no conviction from buyers to challenge overhead resistance.

The longer the price remains below VWAP and the intraday downtrend line, the higher the probability that support eventually gives way.

Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin is at a decision point. The breakdown below trendline support and accelerating outflows shows sellers remain active. ETF outflows from BlackRock reinforce that distribution is coming from institutional participants, not retail traders.

• Bullish case: Bitcoin defends $100,000, breaks above $107,565, then clears $111,413 with rising volume. That shift turns the corrective structure into a recovery and opens the path to $124,000.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $100,000 exposes $98,500, then $92,000, the next major demand zone.

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