BNB Technical Analysis Feb 4

BNB is maintaining a clear LH/LL market structure within a downtrend; if $739 support breaks, bearish continuation, a reversal signal may come with BOS above $784.

Market Structure Overview

BNB’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend in 1D and higher timeframes. Price is trading below EMA20 ($841.11) and Supertrend signal is bearish ($861.43 resistance). Despite RSI at 27.32 in the oversold region, MACD shows a negative histogram confirming weak momentum. 24-hour range squeezed between $736.08 – $783.57; overall MTF structure has 11 strong levels: 1D 1 support/3 resistance, 3D 2S/1R, 1W 3S/3R balance. This strengthens short-term bearish bias, while oversold conditions may trigger a local reaction. Market structure analysis points to lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) – latest swing high $783.57 remained below previous $818.68, completing LH formation. This structure supports trend continuation but critical BOS levels should be monitored for CHoCH (Change of Character).

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

There is currently no bullish HH/HL structure; price is not testing major swing lows from recent months. Potential bullish signals are limited to RSI divergence or holding the $739.56 swing low. If price breaks the $783.57 swing high (bullish BOS), it could lead to $818.68 with new HL formation. However, the current $758.86 level remains weak as long as it stays below EMA20. Bullish continuation target is $981.69 (score 16/100), but low probability due to MTF resistance abundance.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: Latest swing high $783.57 lower than previous $818.68 (LH); swing lows also sequentially declining ($739.56 critical). MACD bearish and Supertrend resistance at $861.43 keeps momentum downward. If $739.56 breaks (bearish BOS), next LL could extend to $518.19 (score 21/100). Despite 1W timeframe 3 resistance/3 support balance, BTC correlation reinforces the downtrend.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) are key breaks confirming trend changes. Bearish BOS requires break of $739.5612 swing low – this level is strong support (score 78/100). Break strengthens LH/LL structure and activates $518 target. Bullish BOS requires close above $783.5700 swing high (score 64/100); this invalidates latest LH and signals shift to HH/HL. Upper resistance $818.6810 (score 63/100) for additional CHoCH confirmation. $755.2889 minor resistance may play a role in local tests. These levels are pivots determining market structure; for example, $783 break on 1D chart opens door to 3D uptrend.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Latest Swing Highs

Most recent swing high $783.5700 (24h peak, score 64/100) – this level is main resistance and BOS trigger in bearish structure. Previous $818.6810 (score 63/100) is origin of LH pattern; if price cannot surpass it, downtrend intact. $755.2889 (score 62/100) minor swing near current $758 – critical for local resistance test. These points overlap with fib retracements, determining reversal potential.

Latest Swing Lows

Strong swing low $739.5612 (score 78/100), near 24h low – support hold offers hope for short-term bounce but break releases bearish targets. In MTF, 1D/3D supports (total 6S) support bottom formation but risky under BTC pressure. These lows complete LL chain; if held, chance to evolve into HL.

Bitcoin Correlation

BNB highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $76,390 (24h -2.41%), Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports $75,474 / $72,912 break, BNB $739 test accelerates – altcoin dominance increase is caution signal. If BTC resistances $77,864 / $82,178 broken, BNB bullish BOS may trigger. If BTC drops to major support $61,211, expect parallel BNB drop to $518. Monitor BTC structure for BNB Spot Analysis and BNB Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structure bearish LH/LL; if $739 doesn’t hold, downtrend continues, bullish shift possible with $784 BOS. Oversold RSI may provide bounce, but MTF resistances dominant. Voluminous break required for CHoCH – caution in speculative positions. Market structure dynamic; follow daily closes. (Word count: 1056)