Bearish Trend Deepens as EMAs Turn Into Resistance

• XRP price today trades near $2.28 and remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

• Spot flows show $8.92M in net outflows, while open interest and derivatives volumes decline, signaling reduced conviction from buyers.
  
• A close above $2.43 is needed for recovery; failure to hold $2.16 opens downside toward $1.95.

XRP price today trades near $2.28, struggling to recover after multiple failed attempts to reclaim overhead resistance. The market continues to reject XRP at key moving averages and descending trendline levels. The latest data from derivatives and spot flow platforms confirms that both leverage and capital are leaving the market, signaling hesitation from buyers at current prices.

Sellers Control Trend As XRP Stays Below Major EMAs

On the daily chart, XRP trades below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 day EMAs, clustered between $2.43 and $2.70. This cluster forms a heavy resistance ceiling and reflects a clear shift in trend. Every rebound in the past two weeks has been rejected at the declining trendline that extends from the September high.

The Fibonacci retracement levels add further context. XRP failed to hold above the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement zones, located around $2.48 and $2.71. The inability to maintain these areas shows that sellers remain in control regardless of short term bounces.

The Bollinger Bands show price riding the lower band, which often indicates continuation rather than reversal. Until XRP closes above the middle band near $2.56, momentum favors downside.

Intraday Structure Shows A Tightening Channel

On the 30 minute chart, XRP trades within a descending channel. Price recently broke above the Supertrend but has not yet confirmed a trend shift. The Supertrend flip level now sits at $2.25, acting as first intraday support.

For buyers, an important sign of momentum would be a clean close above $2.29–$2.32, the upper boundary of the descending channel. Until that break occurs, rallies are treated as reactions rather than sustainable trend shifts.

RSI on the intraday chart holds near 54, showing mild positive momentum but not enough to push out of the channel.

Spot Outflows Confirm Distribution

Coinglass data shows $8.92 million in net outflows on November 9, meaning tokens are moving to exchanges rather than being accumulated.

Outflows into exchanges typically signal distribution. When flows increase alongside failed technical breakouts, it reinforces the bearish narrative.

In prior rallies, inflows coincided with strong upside. The current pattern shows the opposite.

Open Interest Declines As Derivatives Back Off

Derivatives data reinforces the lack of conviction:

• Open interest down 2.66 percent
• Options volume down 57 percent
• Futures volume down 53 percent

These figures show capital stepping away from speculative positioning. When price sits below major trend levels while open interest declines, market participants are reducing exposure rather than preparing for upside.

However, top trader positioning remains skewed long on Binance and OKX with ratios above 2.0, indicating that some aggressive traders still expect a bounce. Yet without supportive flows and a trend reclaim, the market treats that as early rather than confirmed bullish positioning.

Outlook. Will XRP Go Up?

XRP is attempting to base, but trend control remains with sellers until confirmed otherwise.

• Bullish case: A close above $2.43 would be the first sign of recovery. A breakout above $2.65 would flip the EMA cluster and open a move toward $2.80 and potentially $3.00.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $2.16 confirms a breakdown and targets the $1.95 demand zone. Continued outflows and declining open interest increase the probability of this outcome.

The market is waiting for a decisive break. Without reclaiming the EMAs overhead, upside attempts will continue to stall.