AVAX: Rise or Fall? January 16, 2026 Scenario Analysis

AVAX is at a critical crossroads at the $13.62 level. Although the short-term downtrend dominates, with RSI at 41.53 approaching oversold territory and positioned near strong support levels, both scenarios are possible. This analysis will help traders prepare for both directions by understanding market dynamics.

Current Market Situation

AVAX is trading at $13.62 as of January 16, 2026. In the last 24 hours, it fell 1.16% and moved in the $13.19 – $13.87 range, with trading volume recorded at $227.85 million. The overall trend is downward; the price remains below EMA20 ($13.92). RSI at 41.53 is in neutral territory but showing downward momentum. The MACD histogram is negative and giving a bearish signal. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode, highlighting $14.38 resistance.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 0 supports/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W. Key supports are $13.5390 (score: 90/100) and $13.1060 (72/100); resistances are $14.0723 (64/100) and $13.8125 (62/100). There are no significant developments in market news flow, creating an environment where technical levels take center stage. Traders should monitor volume increases and indicator divergences.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking above the $13.8125 and $14.0723 resistances first. This breakout should be confirmed by increased volume and positive RSI divergence. A sustained close above EMA20 ($13.92) signals a short-term trend reversal. Supertrend flipping to bullish and the MACD histogram crossing above the zero line provide additional confirmation. Weakening resistances in higher timeframes (3D/1W) is supported by the 2 support levels holding on 1W. In this scenario, a general crypto market recovery (e.g., increasing BTC dominance) could push AVAX higher. Cancellation criterion: Price breaking and closing below $13.5390 support, which invalidates bullish momentum.

Educational note: Wait for a 4-hour candle close to confirm the breakout. Confidence increases if volume rises more than 20% compared to previous days. Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618 level around $14.00) should also be monitored.

Target Levels

First target $14.38 (Supertrend resistance), followed by $15.9537 (score:22/100). More aggressive targets could extend to $16.50 via 1W Fibonacci extensions. Risk/reward ratio (R/R) is around 1:2.5 to the first target with a $13.5390 stop-loss. Check detailed charts on the AVAX Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario activates with the break of the main $13.5390 support (90/100 score). This breakout is confirmed by increasing volume and RSI dropping below 30. Deeper negative MACD divergence and price accelerating below EMA20 act as triggers. Momentum accelerates if Supertrend remains bearish and the first of the 3 supports on 1D ($13.5390) fails. Pressure continues from higher timeframes (1W:4 resistances). General market weakness (BTC correction) or sudden selling after low-volume consolidation increases risk. Cancellation criterion: Price breaking and closing above $13.8125 resistance, which breaks the bearish structure.

Educational note: In support breakdowns, look for consecutive red candles and volume spikes. Approaching the lower Bollinger Band signals increasing volatility.

Protection Levels

First protection $13.1060 (72/100 score), main target $12.0497 (score:25/100). Lower levels could extend to $11.50 (previous lows). R/R provides a 1:2.8 ratio with $14.0723 invalidation. Check futures data on the AVAX Futures Analysis page.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision triggers: For bullish, close above $14.0723 + RSI >50; for bearish, close below $13.5390 + MACD negative expansion. Volume is critical: +30% increase in upside, dominant selling volume in downside. Monitor MTF alignment – 1D breakouts should align with 3D/1W. Divergences (RSI making higher lows while price makes lower lows = bullish) provide early warnings. Combine short-term (1H/4H) candle patterns (bullish engulfing vs. bearish pinbar) with long-term levels. Market context: Bullish bias increases if BTC stays above $50K; bearish if it drops below.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios are balanced for AVAX; downtrend dominates but supports are strong. Key monitoring points: $13.5390 (main pivot), $14.0723 (breakout test), RSI 40/50 crossover, MACD zero line. Volatility increases if daily volume >$250M. Traders should size positions according to their own risk management and prepare for both directions. This analysis is a tool to improve your market reading skills – do your own research.