Zach Anderson
Oct 01, 2025 06:49
AVAX trades at $29.78 with minimal 24h movement despite $31B September DEX volume milestone, as institutional backing fails to offset recent 18% weekly decline
What Happened
Avalanche’s decentralized exchange ecosystem hit a significant milestone with $31 billion in trading volume for September 2025, yet AVAX price remains under pressure following an 18% weekly decline that brought the token to current levels around $29.78. The disconnect between robust on-chain activity and price performance highlights the complex dynamics facing the Layer-1 blockchain amid broader market uncertainty.
The Details
September’s $31 billion DEX volume represents a substantial increase in trading activity across Avalanche’s ecosystem, with daily volumes reaching an all-time high of $1.3 billion on September 25. This surge coincided with Hivemind Capital Partners announcing a $550 million fundraising plan for AVAX One, a Nasdaq-listed vehicle designed to provide institutional exposure to AVAX.
Despite this institutional backing, AVAX price fell 8% on September 26 alone, extending the weekly decline to 18%. The selling pressure persisted even as the project demonstrated strong fundamental metrics, suggesting that broader market sentiment and technical factors are currently outweighing positive developments.
Technical Response
AVAX/USDT is currently trading at $29.78, showing minimal 24-hour movement of +0.07% within a tight range of $28.81 to $30.38. The token sits 4.2% below its 20-day moving average at $31.09, indicating near-term bearish pressure, though it maintains positions above both the 50-day SMA ($27.24) and 200-day SMA ($22.51).
The RSI reading of 51.0 suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD remains bearish with a histogram reading of -0.5194. Key resistance levels stand at $36.16, while immediate support lies at $27.07, with stronger support at $22.19. The current trading volume of $112 million represents healthy liquidity despite the sideways price action.
What Traders Are Doing
Market participants appear divided between the strong DEX performance and persistent selling pressure. The record trading volumes suggest active engagement within the Avalanche ecosystem, yet price action indicates that sellers continue to dominate spot markets. Institutional interest through AVAX One provides a potential catalyst, but retail sentiment remains cautious following the recent decline.
The gap between on-chain activity and price performance suggests that many traders are utilizing Avalanche’s infrastructure without necessarily holding AVAX tokens long-term, a common pattern in DeFi-focused blockchains where utility doesn’t always translate to immediate price appreciation.
What’s Next
AVAX faces a critical test at the $27.07 support level, which has held during recent selling pressure. A break below this level could accelerate declines toward the stronger support zone around $22.19. Conversely, sustained trading above $30.38 and a reclaim of the 20-day moving average could signal renewed bullish momentum.
The upcoming days will likely determine whether institutional interest can overcome technical selling pressure. Key catalysts include any updates on the AVAX One fundraising progress and continued DEX volume sustainability heading into October.
The Takeaway
AVAX presents a classic divergence between strong fundamentals and weak technicals, making current levels a potential accumulation zone for patient investors willing to bet on institutional adoption overtaking near-term selling pressure.
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