AVAX is testing the $12 support zone after a sharp breakdown, with downside risk towards $9 while a broader double-bottom structure keeps longer-term recovery hopes alive.
Avalanche is trading near the $12.30–$12.40 region after a sharp daily decline, with price pressure intensifying as sellers continue to control the short-term trend. The recent move lower follows a broader loss of structure, keeping AVAX price prediction vulnerable to further downside unless key levels begin to stabilize.
According to market data from Brave New Coin, Avalanche price today is around $12.39, down more than 5% over the past 24 hours. While intraday bounces have appeared, they have so far failed to change the broader setup, leaving traders focused on lower support zones rather than immediate upside continuation.
Avalanche’s current price is $12.39, down -5.46% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
Bearish Breakdown Structure Keeps $9 in Focus
One of the clearest bearish signals comes from analyst Ali Martinez, who highlighted a breakdown from a right-angled ascending broadening wedge on the daily timeframe. According to his analysis, this pattern confirms downside continuation, with a projected target near $9.
AVAX breaks down from a broadening wedge, keeping the $9 downside target in focus as bearish structure remains intact. Source: Ali Martinez via X
The chart shows AVAX failing to hold prior support near the $16–$17 region before accelerating lower. Once that base was lost, price entered a clear descending phase, with lower highs and weak bounce attempts reinforcing bearish momentum. From a structural perspective, this keeps the $9 level as a technically valid downside objective unless price can quickly reclaim lost ground.
This breakdown narrative explains why recent bounces are being treated cautiously rather than as signs of trend reversal.
Exchange Inflows Add Short-Term Selling Risk
Short-term pressure has also been reinforced by on-chain activity. Data shared by Nazoku shows Galaxy Digital transferring roughly 180,000 AVAX (around $2.23 million) to Binance. Historically, large transfers to exchanges are closely monitored, as they often precede increased selling activity or heightened volatility.
Galaxy Digital’s transfer of ~180K AVAX to Binance adds short-term selling risk, aligning with the broader bearish structure. Source: Nazoku via X
While not every exchange deposit results in immediate sell-offs, such inflows add to near-term risk when combined with a bearish technical structure. In AVAX’s case, this activity aligns with the broader breakdown narrative rather than contradicting it, reinforcing the idea that downside pressure has not yet fully played out.
Short-Term Retest Holds Key Support Zone
Despite the bearish backdrop, some traders are beginning to monitor short-term stabilization attempts. Analyst Justpit noted that AVAX is currently seeing a clean retest of a prior support level, suggesting that holding this area could allow for a short-term bounce.
His chart highlights price reacting near the $12–$12.50 zone, an area that previously acted as a pivot. If buyers manage to defend this region, AVAX could see relief moves towards nearby resistance. However, this remains a tactical setup rather than a confirmed trend shift, as the broader structure above remains heavy.
AVAX retests the $12–$12.50 support zone, where holding could trigger a short-term bounce despite the broader bearish structure. Source: Justpit via X
Macro Double Bottom Builds a Longer-Term Bullish Case
Shifting to the higher timeframe, analyst Nehal outlined a much broader bullish scenario forming on the monthly chart. According to his analysis, AVAX is printing a textbook double bottom, a structure often associated with macro accumulation phases.
AVAX forms a potential macro double bottom on the monthly chart, with the $8.83–$13.02 zone acting as a key accumulation range for longer-term recovery. Source: Nehal via X
Nehal identified a wide support zone between $8.83 and $13.02, noting that as long as this region holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact. This framing places the current price action into context: short-term weakness may still occur, but it is unfolding within a zone where long-term buyers have historically shown interest.
The projected upside path on his chart extends well beyond short-term targets, suggesting that if the base holds, AVAX could eventually transition from accumulation into a longer recovery phase.
AVAX Outlook (Speculative)
In the near term, AVAX remains exposed to further downside as long as bearish structures remain active. A failure to hold the current $12 area increases the probability of a move towards $9. If price stabilizes within the $8.83–$13.02 macro support band and begins to show sustained holding behavior, the longer-term double-bottom structure could start to play out. In that scenario, recovery targets extend back towards prior resistance levels over time, though such moves would likely require extended consolidation rather than immediate continuation.
Final Thoughts
Avalanche’s short-term outlook remains bearish, with technical breakdowns and exchange inflows keeping downside risk active near current prices. The $12 zone is acting as a temporary pivot, but failure to hold could expose AVAX to deeper levels near $9.
At the same time, longer-term charts present a different picture. The presence of a macro double bottom and historically significant support suggests that deeper pullbacks may eventually transition into accumulation rather than sustained weakness.