Avalanche (AVAX) is slipping below key support near $12, with bearish structure and relative weakness against Bitcoin keeping downside risk towards the $9–$11 zone in focus.
Avalanche is trading under renewed pressure after failing to hold the $12 handle, with price now hovering near the $11.7–$11.8 zone. The recent slide reflects a broader lack of momentum across altcoins, but AVAX stands out due to how cleanly it continues to respect its bearish structure.
According to market data from Brave New Coin, AVAX Avalanche price today sits near $11.78, down over 2% in the last 24 hours. While intraday bounces have appeared, they have remained shallow, keeping traders focused on downside levels rather than early recovery signals.
AVAX/BTC Pair Signals Relative Underperformance
One of the clearest warnings comes from the AVAX/BTC pair. Analyst Jesse Peralta flagged the structure as weak, noting that the pair remains trapped inside a descending channel. His chart outlines a potential continuation move towards the 0.000110 BTC region if current support fails.
AVAX continues to lag against Bitcoin, with the AVAX/BTC pair trapped in a descending channel and downside risk extending towards 0.000110 BTC. Source: Jesse Peralta via X
This matters because relative weakness against Bitcoin often precedes deeper USD downside. When AVAX crypto cannot outperform BTC during consolidation phases, it tends to bleed more aggressively during market pullbacks.
Temporary AVAX Bounces Confirm Weak Demand
Umair Crypto’s analysis reinforces this bearish tone. He notes that recent support reactions have produced only minor rebounds, confirming the presence of weak demand. Price is now retesting the RSI trendline, which is acting as dynamic resistance rather than a launch point.
AVAX struggles to sustain rebounds, with RSI acting as resistance and weak demand turning every bounce into a selling opportunity. Source: Umair Crypto via X
A rejection at this RSI barrier keeps the bearish path intact. In practical terms, this means AVAX remains vulnerable to another leg lower if buyers fail to reclaim momentum quickly. The structure suggests that rallies are being sold into strength.
Bearish Channel Capping All Recovery Attempts
The broader chart structure highlights a well-defined bearish parallel channel. Each bounce continues to stall near the upper boundary, while lows grind steadily lower. This pattern from ydnldn frames AVAX’s roadmap clearly: unless price can break and hold above the channel resistance, downside continuation remains the dominant scenario.
AVAX remains capped inside a bearish channel, with repeated rejections near $12–$12.5 keeping downside risk towards the $9 zone alive. Source: ydnldn via X
Within this framework, the $12–$12.5 region now acts as a heavy supply zone. It marks the area where previous breakdowns occurred and where sellers consistently regain control. Failure to reclaim this band keeps the path open towards deeper levels, with $9 emerging as the next major technical level.
AVAX Outlook (Speculative)
In the near term, the AVAX price prediction remains tilted bearish while price holds below the $12–$12.50 supply band and continues to respect the broader descending channel structure. The shallow bounce behavior and weakness on the AVAX/BTC pair support the view that rallies may still be sold into strength rather than sustained as trend reversals.
If $11.60–$11.70 fails to hold on a closing basis, downside risk increases towards the $10.50 region first, with the higher-conviction bearish objective remaining near $9.
That said, if bulls are to overturn the bearish developments, they would need to show strength back above the $12.50 level. If price stabilizes and starts reclaiming $12.50, the first recovery test would likely sit near $13.80–$14.50, followed by a next resistance band around $15.20–$15.50.
Final Thoughts: Market Context and Risk Considerations
Risk remains central to the AVAX price prediction. Despite early basing signals, Avalanche is still trading within a bearish structure and below key higher-timeframe resistance, meaning the trend has not flipped decisively bullish.
Avalanche is trading near $11.78, down -2.25% over the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
For short-term traders, $11.60–$11.70 defines near-term invalidation, while upside scenarios depend on acceptance back above $12.50. For longer-term participants, the focus is less on intraday moves and more on whether AVAX crypto can reclaim prior weekly resistance rather than simply defend support.
In the broader context, AVAX remains a structure-led asset. Whether Avalanche is a good investment depends on the timeframe and risk tolerance more than the targets alone. Keeping the price capped below $12.50 keeps the AVAX price prediction tilted towards the $9–$11 region