AVAX is trading near a critical $10 demand zone as analysts watch whether stablecoin inflows and long-term support can stabilize the price or signal further downside.
AVAX crypto is facing renewed technical pressure as price action consolidates near a historically significant demand zone, while broader chart structure continues to reflect elevated downside risk rather than confirmed trend recovery.
After failing to sustain moves above the $15–$18 region earlier in the cycle, AVAX has steadily retraced back towards the $9–$12 support band, an area that has repeatedly acted as a base during prior phases. At the time of writing, AVAX is trading near $10 as per the price data from Brave New Coin.
Long-Term Demand Zone Under Test
From a higher-timeframe perspective, Avalanche price analysis continues to show AVAX interacting with a multi-year demand region dating back to 2021. This zone, spanning roughly $9–$12, has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support across multiple market phases, making it a structurally important area for the price.
AVAX tests a multi-year $9–$12 demand zone, aligning with a developing XABCD harmonic structure. Source: KlediCuni via TradingView
A longer-term scenario shared by KlediCuni frames this region as a point where downside risk may begin to compress rather than expand immediately. The current structure also aligns with a developing XABCD harmonic formation, with its completion zone overlapping the same demand area.
Descending Channel Structure Keeps AVAX Cautious
On the weekly chart, AVAX continues to respect a descending channel, defined by a sequence of lower highs since the 2021 peak. Price is currently trading near the lower boundary of this structure, where downside momentum has slowed but has not yet reversed.
AVAX remains within a descending channel, with the $10–$12 zone acting as key support while $15–$16 caps any corrective recovery. Source: Yeisonthereal via TradingView
Crypto analyst Yeisonthereal believes that the key question is whether AVAX can defend the $10–$12 demand zone long enough to allow a corrective recovery within the channel. If support holds, the first upside decision area remains $15–$16, where supply has historically emerged. A sustained weekly close below $9, however, would invalidate the demand-zone thesis and shift focus towards deeper downside scenarios.
AVAX Crypto and Stablecoin
While price action remains weak, on-chain data shows a contrary signal. Recent market data highlighted by Cointelegraph shows that Avalanche recorded the highest net stablecoin inflows among major blockchain networks over the past week, despite continued price pressure.
Avalanche leads in net stablecoin inflows despite weak price action, hinting at quiet accumulation during the ongoing drawdown. Source: Cointelegraph via X
This divergence between capital inflows and declining price is notable. Historically, periods where stablecoins move into an ecosystem during drawdowns have often aligned with early accumulation phases. While inflows alone do not guarantee upside, they suggest that liquidity is positioning within the Avalanche ecosystem.
Token Supply Dynamics Add Long-Term Context
Adding to the broader backdrop, the Avalanche Foundation recently confirmed that total AVAX burned has surpassed 5 million tokens, permanently removing them from circulation. Since all transaction fees on Avalanche are burned, network activity introduces a gradual deflationary effect on supply.
While token burns are not short-term catalysts, they influence long-term supply dynamics, particularly if usage stabilizes or recovers alongside broader market conditions.
Downside Scenarios Remain on the Table
Despite the stability narrative around demand, near-term risk remains. A view shared by Xavler emphasizes that AVAX is extremely oversold on higher timeframes, which often discourages late selling but does not automatically confirm a bottom.
AVAX remains deeply oversold on higher timeframes, but analysts warn that oversold conditions alone do not confirm a bottom. Source: Xavler via X
Oversold conditions can persist during sustained downtrends, meaning AVAX may still require time, basing, or additional liquidity sweeps before any clean recovery emerges. This keeps the market in a “wait for confirmation” phase rather than a “front-run the reversal” phase.
AVAX Short-Term Technical Analysis
In the short term, AVAX crypto has broken below the $11.26 support, a level that previously acted as a range floor and short-term demand. This breakdown has shifted near-term structure bearish, with price now trading closer to $9.80, where reaction has been weak so far.
On the downside, $8.80–$8.50 marks the next support zone. A sustained loss of this area would open the door to a deeper continuation lower. Meanwhile, on the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim $11.26, followed by a move towards $14.96.
Avalanche is trading near $11.78, down -2.25% over the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
Looking Ahead: Support Test Defines the Next Phase
In the near term, Avalanche’s price action is defined by weak momentum and structural weakness. The inability to reclaim key resistance levels keeps the bias cautious as of now.
Key levels remain clear:
- Primary Support: $9–$12
- Recovery Resistance: $15–$16
Whether AVAX stabilizes above $10 or breaks lower determines the next phase of its structure. Until confirmation emerges through weekly closes, volume expansion, or broader market recovery, analysts continue to emphasize patience over anticipation.