AVAX is once again testing a pivotal support zone near $12, with participants watching closely to see whether this base holds or gives way to the next decisive move.
AVAX price is once again back in a zone that has defined both its recoveries and its breakdowns. After days of pressure, AVAX is hovering near $12, a level that sits uncomfortably close to long-term demand. With AVAX/BTC trending lower, price struggling beneath key resistance, and broader risk signals flashing caution, the next move from here is likely to be decisive.
AVAX/BTC Shows Persistent Weakness
One of the most telling signals comes from the AVAX/BTC valuation chart. The ratio continues to trend lower, reflecting sustained underperformance relative to Bitcoin. This matters because strong altcoin recoveries usually begin with relative strength.
AVAX continues to underperform Bitcoin, with the AVAX/BTC ratio trending lower and signaling weak relative momentum. Source: Into The Cryptoverse via X
Until this ratio stabilizes or begins to form higher lows, AVAX remains structurally disadvantaged within the broader market. In practical terms, it suggests that any upside attempts may struggle to gain traction unless relative momentum shifts.
Breakout Level Defines the Upside Path
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez chart draws a clean line at $14.83. This level caps the current structure and acts as the gateway for trend recovery. A confirmed break and hold above it opens a technical path towards $18–$18.50, aligning with prior swing zones.
AVAX remains capped beneath the $14.83 ceiling, with repeated lower highs highlighting this zone as the key breakout gate toward the $18–$18.50 region. Source: Ali Martinez via X
AVAX continues to print lower highs into this ceiling, reinforcing it as a supply-heavy region. Until price can accept above this band, upside remains speculative rather than sustainable.
Short-Term Risk Still Lingers
The Short-term Bubble Risk indicator shows that AVAX downside pressure cannot be dismissed despite oversold levels. Historically, when this indicator remains so low while price drifts lower, the market often needs more time, or a deeper sweep, before a sustainable base forms.
AVAX’s Bubble Risk stays low, signaling that downside pressure remains and a deeper sweep cannot be ruled out. Source: Into The Cryptoverse via X
This does not guarantee a breakdown, but it reinforces that AVAX price is not yet in a clean accumulation phase. Both a bounce attempt and a deeper flush remain technically valid outcomes from this region.
Weekly Structure Remains Heavy
The higher-timeframe view adds more context. The weekly chart from DrBullZeus shows AVAX breaking below a major resistance band that previously acted as support. That zone now sits overhead, and reclaiming it is necessary for any sustainable push towards $20.
AVAX has slipped below a former support zone that now acts as heavy overhead resistance, with failure to reclaim it keeping sub-$10 levels in play. Source: DrBullZeus via X
Failure to do so leaves the door open for a deeper retracement. The chart outlines a potential path towards sub-$10 levels if price continues to reject from the former structure.
Technical Outlook: AVAX at a Critical Base
Avalanche’s current price is $12.05, down 0.45% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
The Brave New Coin chart shows Avalanche AVAX trading near $12.00, following a steady decline from the mid-$13s. Price is no longer accelerating lower, but it is also failing to attract sustained demand, behavior that often appears when a market is hovering above support without conviction.
The key structure is clear:
- Support is at $11–$12
- Resistance is at $13.50–$14.80
Holding this base keeps AVAX inside a basing attempt with room to rotate higher. Losing it exposes a thinner zone beneath, where historical reactions become sparse, and downside can expand quickly.
Final Thoughts: Can AVAX Price Hit $20?
Avalanche is trading at a structural fork, with price pinned between a base that must hold and resistance that must break. As long as AVAX continues to defend the $11–$12 region and manages to reclaim the $14.80 band, structure begins to recover, and the target towards $18–$20 comes back into view.
A failure to hold this base, however, exposes a much thinner zone beneath, where price could drift towards the $9–$10 region. This remains a level-driven market, and direction will be decided by how the price behaves at these boundaries rather than by expectation in the middle.