AVAX crypto is trading above a key long-term support zone, with tightening price action signaling a potential breakout or continuation phase ahead.
After a tough pullback from its previous cycle highs, AVAX crypto now finds itself in a zone where sellers appear to be losing control. Price is holding steady near long-term support, volatility is fading, and market watchers are starting to debate whether this calm period is setting the stage for a larger move ahead.
Current Market Performance and Technical Conditions
As of mid-December, Avalanche trades around $13, down significantly from its prior cycle highs but holding above a long-standing demand zone that has repeatedly absorbed sell pressure. This area has acted as a structural floor across multiple timeframes, with price spending several weeks consolidating rather than accelerating lower.
Avalanche’s current price is $14.26, down 1.98% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
Short-term momentum remains neutral. AVAX is neither trending decisively higher nor breaking down, reflecting a market in equilibrium.
Consolidation Signals Point Towards a Breakout Scenario
A widely shared chart from James Easton highlights AVAX consolidating cleanly after its recent decline. His analysis emphasizes the importance of the $15 level, noting that a decisive break above this zone could significantly shift market structure.
AVAX consolidates beneath the $15 resistance level, with tightening price action suggesting a potential breakout setup. Source: James Easton via X
According to Easton, the current base formation suggests absorption rather than distribution, with price respecting support while compressing beneath resistance. He frames the setup as one where upside momentum could accelerate rapidly if buyers reclaim $15, given the lack of heavy resistance immediately above that level.
Long-Term Structure Shows AVAX in Deep Discount Territory
From a higher-timeframe perspective, Brotoshi Nakamoto outlines a broader structural view that places AVAX firmly in what he describes as “extreme discounted territory.” His weekly chart maps AVAX trading within a descending channel, with price currently holding near the lower boundary of that structure.
AVAX trades near the lower boundary of its long-term channel, with Fibonacci structure suggesting significant upside potential if trend conditions improve. Source: Brotoshi Nakamoto via X
Brotoshi’s analysis highlights key Fibonacci levels, noting that a move back towards the top of the established range, near the 0.5 retracement, could imply over 160% upside from current levels, targeting $24 followed by $30. While he stresses that this is a structural roadmap rather than a short-term forecast, the chart reinforces the idea that downside risk may be compressing relative to potential upside if trend conditions improve.
Network Activity Adds a Fundamental Layer to AVAX
Beyond price action, CW8900 points to a sharp expansion in Avalanche’s network activity. His data shows a 1,100% increase in average transactions per second (TPS) over the past year, with the network now consistently handling around 500 TPS.
This surge in throughput highlights growing on-chain usage and infrastructure maturity. While network growth does not guarantee immediate price appreciation, sustained increases in activity often provide a supportive backdrop during accumulation phases, particularly when price is trading near historical lows.
Avalanche’s network activity surges, with average TPS up over 1,100% year-on-year, signaling growing on-chain usage and infrastructure strength. Source: CW8900 via X
Downtrend Resistance Remains the Final Hurdle
A separate technical perspective from Falcon Trades frames AVAX’s structure around a clearly defined support-and-resistance model. His chart shows AVAX consolidating on a major support zone while pressing against a long-term descending trendline.
AVAX consolidates on major support while testing long-term downtrend resistance, with a confirmed breakout opening the door towards the $55 region. Source: Falcon Trades via X
According to Falcon Trades, a confirmed breakout above this trendline would mark a structural shift, with a longer-term upside target projected near $55. Until that break occurs, the current phase is preparation rather than confirmation.
Final Outlook: Where Does Avalanche Go From Here?
Taken together, the current Avalanche price prediction landscape reflects a market at an inflection point. Price is holding firm above long-term support, volatility is compressing, and both technical and on-chain signals suggest accumulation rather than aggressive distribution.
A sustained move above $15 remains the key trigger for bullish confirmation in the near term. Failure to hold the $12 to $13 region, however, would weaken the structure and delay recovery expectations. For now, AVAX appears positioned in a waiting phase, one where the next decisive move will likely define its trajectory into the coming months.
If broader market conditions stabilize and liquidity improves, market watchers agree that Avalanche has room to reprice higher from historically discounted levels. As always, confirmation, not anticipation, will be the deciding factor.