AVAX crypto is trading near its deep discount zone around $14–$16, where historical accumulation often sparks powerful recoveries, drawing renewed attention from participants and long-term investors alike.
AVAX crypto finds itself at a pivotal moment as price action compresses near multi-year lows while on-chain data tells a very different story. Despite months of sideways movement, network activity continues to climb, signaling that the long-term outlook still holds.
Smart Money Zones Coming into Play
Carl Moon highlights that AVAX crypto is approaching what he calls the “deep discount zone”, an area historically aligned with bear market lows. The chart shows price nearing the $14 to $16 region, a level that previously marked long-term accumulation. Below it lies the final liquidity pocket near $10, completing the smart money buy zone.
AVAX approaches its historical accumulation zone between $14 and $16, signaling potential bottom formation. Source: Carl Moon via X
From a risk-to-reward perspective, this range offers an attractive setup, with limited downside compared to the potential upside once a reversal begins. Volume spikes within this region often precede recoveries, signaling capital rotation back into undervalued layer-one projects like Avalanche.
Weekly Support Holds as AVAX Price Structure Stabilizes
AVAX crypto chart captures the price hovering around $16, a level that has acted as a multi-year horizontal support. Each test of this base since 2023 has resulted in strong rebounds, suggesting it’s a key area of long-term accumulation.
AVAX holds firm above its multi-year $16 support zone, with higher-timeframe compression hinting at an upcoming breakout. Source: Nihilus via X
The pattern also reveals higher low formations on higher timeframes, hinting at compression that could precede a larger impulse. A breakout from this range could target $35 initially, while a confirmed weekly close above $40 would mark a structural shift toward bullish continuation.
On-Chain Volume Reaches Record Milestone
Avalanche’s cumulative trading volume has now surpassed $973 million, reflecting continued ecosystem activity despite recent price softness. According to Marc Shawn Brown, this rise in transaction throughput aligns with increased participation across subnets and DeFi protocols on Avalanche. Such sustained on-chain strength reinforces the narrative that AVAX remains fundamentally active, even while the market trades sideways.
AVAX surpasses $973 million in cumulative trading volume, underscoring strong network activity and steady DeFi participation. Source: Marc Shawn Brown via X
Bullish Reversal Candle Sparks Attention
Bayo’s intraday AVAX chart highlights a bullish engulfing candle forming near $15.9, a level coinciding with both the value area low (VAL) and point of control (POC) on the volume profile. This indicates that demand absorption may be underway, potentially marking a short-term bottom.
Avalanche forms a bullish engulfing candle near $15.9 as rising buy volume and tightening Bollinger Bands hint at an early reversal. Source: Bayo via X
The recovery from this support area is accompanied by rising buy volume and tightening Bollinger Bands, signaling reduced volatility ahead of a possible breakout. If the current AVAX candle closes strong and is followed by a continuation bar above $17, it could confirm the beginning of a relief rally.
Final Thoughts: Can AVAX Crypto Bounce from Bear Market Lows?
AVAX crypto now stands at a critical juncture, trading near historic demand zones while its on-chain metrics paint a far healthier picture than price alone suggests. The alignment between technical bases around $14 to $16 and strengthening ecosystem participation underscores a potential inflection point for the asset.
Avalanche’s current price is $16.91, down -7.09% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
If AVAX price can hold this multi-year support and confirm higher-timeframe bullish structure, a return towards $35 to $40 becomes plausible within the next few months. For now, AVAX price prediction appears to be transitioning from capitulation to quiet accumulation, a pattern often seen before broader market reversals, and smart money seems to be positioning early.