AVAX is trading at a key inflection point after breaking descending resistance, with traders closely watching whether the recent momentum can extend into a sustained short-term recovery.
After defending the $12–$12.50 zone, AVAX has started to show clear signs of strength, with buyers stepping in aggressively on dips.
Descending Trendline Break Sparks Short-Term Momentum
On the 6-hour chart shared by FLASH, AVAX has cleanly broken above a descending trendline that capped price action throughout December. This trendline had previously acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting multiple upside attempts before sellers lost control.
The breakout occurred near the $13.50–$13.70 region, with price pushing toward $14 shortly after. Importantly, this move followed a strong defense of the $12.00–$12.50 demand zone, where buyers repeatedly stepped in. As long as AVAX holds above this reclaimed structure, short-term momentum remains constructive.
AVAX breaks above a key descending trendline after defending the $12–$12.50 demand zone, signaling improving short-term momentum. Source: FLASH via X
Key technical levels to watch:
- Resistance: $14.50–$15.00
- Upside targets: $16.20, then $18.00
- Immediate support: $13.40–$13.00
A failure to hold above the broken trendline would weaken the breakout narrative and shift focus back towards range-bound behavior.
Moving Averages Flip as AVAX Reclaims 50-SMA
Adding to the bullish short-term case, AVAX has reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since early October. This reclaim often acts as a momentum filter, separating corrective bounces from genuine trend transitions.
AVAX reclaims its 50-day moving average, signaling improving short-term momentum. Source: SerSigma via X
Historically, AVAX has struggled below this moving average during bear phases, with repeated rejections leading to lower lows. Holding above the 50-SMA now opens the door for a test of the 100-SMA near the mid-$15 region. However, the 200-day moving average remains far overhead, reinforcing that this is still an early-stage recovery rather than a confirmed macro reversal.
Volume behavior around this reclaim will be critical. Sustained follow-through with expanding volume would strengthen the bullish case, while weak participation could leave the move vulnerable to failure.
ETF Developments Add Medium-Term Narrative Support
On the fundamental side, Coin Bureau highlighted that Grayscale amended its AVAX ETF S-1 to include staking rewards. This development positions AVAX among a small group of assets being structured for yield-inclusive investment products.
While ETF approval timelines remain uncertain, the inclusion of staking provisions highlights growing institutional consideration of Avalanche’s network economics. From a market perspective, such developments often act as medium-term sentiment tailwinds.
Market Strength Improves as AVAX Outperforms Peers
A separate momentum angle comes from Max Leverage, who pointed out AVAX outperforming the broader market in relative strength terms. When AVAX starts pushing into “strong” territory while others lag, it often suggests capital rotation rather than random hype.
AVAX shows relative strength against the broader market, hinting at capital rotation, though price now approaches a key supply zone near $14.50–$15.00. Source: Max Leverage via X
Still, AVAX is now approaching a supply pocket where sellers have previously shown up. The area between $14.50 and $15.00 lines up with visible overhead resistance on multiple views, meaning bulls likely need a firm break and acceptance to unlock the next leg towards $16–$18.
Final Thoughts: Can AVAX Extend Towards $18?
AVAX breakout above descending resistance marks an important short-term technical shift, supported by moving average reclaims and improving relative strength. As long as price holds above the $13.00–$13.40 region, AVAX price prediction would target around $16 and towards the $18 zone.
That said, the broader structure still reflects a market in recovery rather than full trend reversal. Traders should remain selective, watching for confirmation through daily closes, volume expansion, and sustained support above reclaimed levels. Failure to hold $12.50 would invalidate the bullish setup and reintroduce downside risk towards prior demand zones.
For now, AVAX sits at a technically meaningful inflection point, one that could define its trajectory into the first quarter of 2026.