Avalanche [AVAX]: How this falling wedge set-up could play out

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice

Avalanche [AVAX] has been on a persistent downslide after slipping from the $101-mark at the inception of this month. The sellers continued to steal the existing momentum. In doing so, they devalued the alt in a falling wedge (white).

To smash the bonds of the current pattern, the buyers would have to first locate a comfortable close above the 20 EMA (red). At press time, AVAX was trading at $70.14.

AVAX 4-hour Chart

Source: TradingView, AVAX/USDT

AVAX shed more than 35% (from its ATH) of its value and swooped toward its six-week low on 25 April. Since then, the buyers have been stumbling around the 20 EMA that has shut down the recent revival attempts.

The digital asset’s price saw exponential growth in the latter half of March after the bulls re-established their presence at the $66-support. For nearly three months now, this support has offered rebounding opportunities for the buyers.

If the coming sessions attract profit-taking, a close below the 20-EMA (red) put AVAX on a route that would retest the $66-$67 range before buyers regain control. Having said that, a continued bull rally above the 20 EMA would provoke enough bullish impetus to test the $72-zone.

Rationale

Source: TradingView, AVAX/USDT

For the most part, the RSI has corresponded with the recently increased buying power. But it’s been over a week since the index even poked the equilibrium. With a selling edge still lurking around, the bulls still needed to sping rallies on heightened volumes to change the ongoing bearish view.

The OBV also confirmed an increase in buying power, particularly over the last three days. Although after a spike on its peaks, it observed a hidden bearish divergence with price. So a possible pullback toward the lower trendline of the falling wedge in the coming sessions should not surprise the investors.

Conclusion

In view of the hidden bearish divergence on the OBV with the price, a short-term pullback could precede a likely bullish resurgence. A jump above its 20/50 EMA would brace AVAX for challenging falling wedge and ultimately breaking out of it. 

Finally, a broader sentiment analysis alongside on-chain developments should be taken into consideration to make a profitable move.