Assessing the odds of Aptos [APT] bouncing before heading south again

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion

• Retest of support and extreme oversold conditions could fuel a temporary bounce in prices
• Failure of $9.9-support to yield a bullish reaction could alert lower timeframe bears that another swift drop is imminent

The woes of Bitcoin bulls continued after the rejection at $30k proved not to be a temporary pullback. The support levels at $28.7k and $27.7k did not last long and it looks likely that the downtrend will continue at least until $25k.

Realistic or not, here’s APT’s market cap in BTC’s terms

This is likely to affect the altcoin markets as well. Aptos has shed 25% of its value over the past three days, measured from the swing points. More losses can follow, but an opportunity can arise for bears to re-enter short positions.

The northward imbalance and oversold conditions mean an APT bounce is possible

Source: APT/USDT on TradingView

The RSI stood at 20 to show extreme bearish momentum. The market structure was also firmly bearish. Aptos has fallen almost vertically over the past three days without resting at support levels for a decent chunk of time.

The significant dip in the OBV also highlighted intense selling pressure over the past three days. However, in mid-March, the $9.9-$10 area had served as a demand zone for APT. A bullish order block had formed in this area and was highlighted by the cyan box. It was a significant zone because of the sharp reaction APT noted the last time it tested this support.

How much are 1, 10, or 100 APT worth today?

Moreover, the swift fall in Aptos values left a fair value gap on the charts that extended to $10.8. Therefore, short sellers looking to re-enter can wait for a move upward to the $10.7-$10.8 area. Invalidation would be a session close above $11.5, and the take-profit target would be the $9-support level.

Bullish speculators were almost completely absent

Source: Coinalyze

Once again, the evidence does not look good for the bulls. The 1-hour chart from Coinalyze showed that when APT took two days to descend from $11.7 to $10.9, the OI saw a marginal increase. This showed sidelined participants and bearish sentiment since speculators were not willing to bid.

The funding rate also fell into the negative territory in recent hours, underlining the majority had shifted bearish. This does not rule out the possibility of a near-term bounce, which can catch late shorts offside and hunt liquidity that way. Overall, the market remains strongly in favor of the sellers for now.