Assessing Shiba Inu’s odds after SHIB’s most-recent failed breakout

• Shiba Inu maintained its bullish structure despite the 28.6% drop from its local highs
• Imbalance on the daily chart was filled, but it is unclear if this will lead to a recovery

Shiba Inu [SHIB] was one of the large-cap memecoins that excited bulls during the second half of September. Measured from the 18th of the month, SHIB rallied by 67.36% in nine days, but was unable to break the bearish order block at $0.000021.

Source: SHIB/USDT on TradingView

The subsequent retracement forced SHIB below the $0.0000175 support level. A recent report noted that such a move could be an early sign of bearish dominance. Should traders prepare for further losses, or is this a temporary pullback before the next impulse move higher?

Shiba Inu sentiment has done a 180

Source: Santiment

The weighted market sentiment was firmly bullish towards the end of September. It reached scores not seen in the past three months, comfortably surpassing mid-August rally’s positive sentiment.

Shiba Inu daily active addresses also formed a new peak. The last time the metric pushed as high as on 29 September was back in May. Together, both signaled bullish belief, which has come crashing down over the past four days.

The age consumed metric saw a couple of noticeable spikes over the past two days too. This pointed to token movement between addresses and is generally a sign of selling pressure.

Insights from long and short-term holders

Source: Santiment

The 30-day MVRV was still positive, meaning that on average short-term SHIB holders are still in profit. However, the 180-day MVRV was forced below zero after briefly resurfacing during the rally.

It highlighted the willingness of long-term holders to get out at break even, considering the downtrend the memecoin has been on since May.

The network growth metric surged higher alongside the price, showing more participants flocking to the market. The mean coin age has been trending south since the final week of August too.

Read Shiba Inu’s [SHIB] Price Prediction 2024-25

Therefore, long-term holders had decided to start distribution back then. The final rally to $0.0000217 served as a local top. Shiba Inu likely needs another accumulation phase before it can emulate the gains of September.