Brian Armstrong speculates Bitcoin at 1 million in 5 years: numbers, method, drivers (spot ETF, adoption) and risks. Analysis with data, sources, and calculation of CAGR.
A symbolic threshold reignites the debate: Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, recently stated – as reported by The Motley Fool – that Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 in five years.
In fact, to achieve this goal, Bitcoin would need to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 55% per year, starting from current levels.
Such a scenario implies a sustained acceleration of capital flows, with significant institutional participation and a boost also linked to the entry of spot ETFs into the market; in particular, sector reports indicate that spot ETFs have attracted over 100 billion dollars in less than 12 months, data updated as of 09/30/2025.
According to the data collected by our research team, based on cross-references between sector reports, weekly ETF flows, and on-chain metrics, the regulated inflows into Bitcoin products have shown a positive weekly average over the last 10 months (data updated as of 09/30/2025).
The industry analysts we consult observe how the increase in AUM of spot ETFs has reduced part of the access gap for institutional investors. In our analyses, we compared CoinShares historical series, on-chain metrics, and public filings to verify the resilience of the illiquid supply and the accumulation by large holders.
Summary in 30 seconds
- Target: $1,000,000 within 5 years; to achieve this, a compound growth of around 55% annually is needed starting from current levels (current price, for example, of about $118,691, as reported by The Motley Fool on 10/02/2025).
- Driver: institutional adoption, spot ETFs – which in less than a year have attracted over 100 billion dollars according to sector reports –, accumulation in corporate treasuries and a limited supply of 21 million BTC.
- Contrarian: volatility, regulation, liquidity, and macroeconomic cyclicality can hinder the path.
- Method: dedicated section with the calculation of the CAGR and details on the assumptions used.
Context and Numerical Basis
The starting point is crucial. From recent market valuations – with a Bitcoin price of approximately $118,691 and a market capitalization around $2.4 trillion – reaching $1,000,000 in five years requires an acceleration of inflows well above historical averages.
In this context, the comparison with past Bitcoin cycles and the trajectories of mega-cap tech companies helps to frame the challenge in terms of scale and timing.
Methodology: How to Achieve a CAGR Close to 55%
For transparency, we outline the steps for calculating the compound annual growth rate required to reach $1,000,000 in 5 years.
- Formula: CAGR = (Final Value / Initial Value)^(1/n) − 1.
- Assumptions: n = 5 years; Final value = $1,000,000; Initial value = current spot price (around $118,691, according to The Motley Fool as of 10/02/2025).
- Example: with the indicated values, the result is around an annual rate of 55%.
Note: the CAGR is a geometric average and does not imply linear growth; in the crypto field, returns can be concentrated in short windows, followed by phases of consolidation or declines.
Support Factors: Adoption, Spot ETFs, Scarcity
Institutional Adoption on the Rise
A central factor for this scenario is institutional adoption. According to recent reports from Fidelity Digital Assets, institutional investors are increasing the portion of their portfolios dedicated to Bitcoin, contributing to a more consistent and structured buying pressure.
Spot ETF: structural demand channel
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a regulated conduit for traditional capital. In less than a year, these instruments have attracted over 100 billion dollars, increasing transparency and reducing friction in investments for large portfolios.
For more details on flows and spreads, also see our dedicated analysis on spot Bitcoin ETFs: flows, spreads, and price impact.
Programmed Scarcity of Supply
The supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million units, with a decreasing issuance due to halving events.
Currently, about 19.9 million Bitcoins are in circulation (data updated as of 01/10/2025), and the progressive reduction of new BTC in circulation, combined with stable or growing demand, contributes to upward pressure on the price (Blockchain.com). For a technical focus on the effects of halving, see our guide: Bitcoin Halving: What Changes for Supply and Miners.
The feasibility of the 5-year target
From current data, a CAGR close to 55% is ambitious but not unprecedented in high-growth markets. To support it, continuous inflows are needed, particularly through ETFs and accumulations in corporate treasuries, as well as an improvement in market depth on various trading platforms.
However, scenarios such as high real interest rates, regulatory tightening, or liquidity shocks could slow down the path, resulting in “stair-step” price trajectories rather than steady growth.
Independent Voices and Analysis
- CoinShares: The weekly flow reports provide a detailed view of the inflows and outflows in regulated products (CoinShares Weekly Flows).
- Fidelity Digital Assets: studies on institutional demand highlight a growing adoption trend (Fidelity Digital Assets).
- BIS (Bank for International Settlements): offers analysis on volatility, correlations, and systemic risks related to the crypto market (BIS).
Specific Risks to Monitor
- Regulation: the evolution of regulations such as MiCA in the EU and the oversight of SEC/CFTC in the USA could influence liquidity and market access. For more insights on European regulation, check out our analysis on spot Bitcoin ETFs and the report dedicated to MiCA.
- Miner market: factors such as revenues, energy costs, hash rate, and forced sales in stress situations require constant monitoring. For related news, see the updates on New all-time high for Bitcoin’s hash rate and Declining revenues for Bitcoin mining.
- Concentration: the high concentration of large holders and custodians increases the operational risk for the infrastructures.
- Macro: variables related to real rates, the value of the dollar, and global risk appetite influence market trends. Don’t miss the analyses on Gold near historical highs and the comments from JPMorgan.
Key Data and Sources
To increase transparency, we provide a summary with primary sources. The fields “To be updated” will need to be filled in with the latest available reading (data updated as of 10/02/2025 where specified).
| BTC Price (spot) | To update: insert latest price (around $118,691 according to The Motley Fool as of 10/02/2025) | CoinGecko / CoinDesk |
| Market Capitalization | To update: calculation based on price | As above |
| Spot ETF on Bitcoin (AUM/flow) | To update: latest AUM and net flows (CoinShares reports indicate >100 billion $ raised in less than 12 months, data as of 09/30/2025) | CoinShares Weekly Flows; issuer pages (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB etc.) |
| Estimated Circulating Supply | ~19.9 million BTC (data updated as of 10/01/2025) | Glassnode / Blockchain.com |
| Corporate Holdings (treasuries) | To update: detail and % estimate | MicroStrategy; issuer SEC filings |
Critical Angle: What is Missing for a Credible Path
To make the scenario consistent, repeated evidence of net demand is needed: positive flows on ETFs for several quarters, reduced spreads between different trading platforms, custody with high standards, and an increase in on-chain metrics (such as illiquid supply).
It should be noted that, in the absence of such dynamics, the trajectory might take longer, with intermediate consolidation phases.
Conclusion
The hypothesis of Bitcoin at 1 million in five years is arithmetically compatible with a CAGR around 55%, but success depends on durable inflows, substantial accumulations in corporate treasuries, and favorable macro conditions.
That said, the risk/reward balance remains high, making extreme scenarios possible but not inevitable.