Are We Heading for a Bullish Run or a Market Stalemate?

The most recent Bitcoin Halving event took place on April 19, 2024. Investors had great expectations for this latest halving year, as in the previous halving year, the Bitcoin market delivered an impressive return of +304.1%, leaving investors excited at the prospect of similar gains in 2024.

But not everyone is sharing the same rosy outlook. Ki Young Ju, a seasoned crypto analyst, has cast a shadow of doubt over the potential for another blockbuster year. In a recent post on X, Ju raised concerns about whether 2024 can truly live up to the hype surrounding past halving events.

Read on to know more.

Bitcoin’s Halving History: A Look Back

There have now been four Bitcoin halving events, including the one in 2024. The first occurred in 2012, with Bitcoin posting a solid 183.5% return for the year. Although this was impressive, it was far below the incredible 1,435% return from the year before.

By the second halving in 2016, a new pattern emerged. Bitcoin’s price rose 123.8% that year, a much higher gain than the 34.4% increase seen in the previous year. The trend continued in the third halving year in 2020, where Bitcoin surged 304.1%, more than triple the previous year’s 90.9% return. In 2023, Bitcoin returned 155.4%. If the trend holds, Bitcoin will need to outperform this number in 2024. Currently, the price is $60,788, up just 37.61% from its starting price of $44,172.80 at the beginning of the year, a figure that’s not very encouraging.

Sideways Movement Threatens 2024’s Record

Ki Young Ju recently noted that 285 days have passed in 2024 with no major price moves. He warned that if Bitcoin doesn’t show significant momentum in the next 14 days, this could mark the longest sideways period in any halving year.

To illustrate this, he shared a chart titled ‘Bitcoin Cumulative Return Index on Halving Year,’ highlighting the current lack of price action.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: What’s the Outlook for October 2024?

The month of October started rough for Bitcoin, with prices falling due to rising tensions between Israel and Iran. On October 1, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $63,342 to $60,817. The decline continued on October 2, reaching $60,642. Although buying pressure on October 3 briefly pushed the price to $62,816, sellers soon regained control, and by October 10, Bitcoin hit a monthly low of $60,326.

Today, however, Bitcoin has shown some upward momentum, moving above yesterday’s opening price, hinting at potential recovery.

October has traditionally been a good month for Bitcoin. In 2023, the market gained 28.5% during the month, with prices moving between $27,995 and $26,744 in the first twelve days. Then, on October 13, strong buying pressure pushed Bitcoin’s price from $26,779 to $34,482, with the market remaining in the $34,634 range by the month’s end.

To stay in line with the typical halving year pattern, Bitcoin will need a similar rally this October. With time running out, investors are hoping for a repeat of 2023’s success.

As we approach the final stretch of 2024, Bitcoin needs to break out of its sideways pattern and make the gains expected in a halving year. Whether we’ll see a repeat of past halving trends or a more disappointing outcome remains to be seen. Time is ticking.