Polymarket faces scrutiny after researchers warn public dashboards may double-count trades, sparking debate over data accuracy and motives.
Polymarket’s reported trading volumes have come under fire, after researchers said that many dashboards may have been counting the same trades twice.
The debate grew fast and pulled in analysts, investors and rival platforms. It also created confusion for users who rely on public data to judge activity on the prediction market.
How the volume dispute started
A researcher known online as @notnotstorm shared his findings, which showed that Polymarket’s on-chain records log each trade through several events. Those events then appear on dashboards like Dune Analytics, DefiLlama, Blockworks, Allium and others.
found a pretty major data bug
it turns out almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume (not related to wash trading)
this is because Polymarket’s onchain data contains redundant representations of each trade. receipts ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/rQJEzs2Rfl
— storm (@notnotstorm) December 8, 2025
However, the issue starts when these dashboards read both the maker-side and taker-side events as separate actions.
They sometimes add the two together, and that creates totals that look larger than the money actually flowing through the platform.
The claim spread fast after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang reposted the thread.
Notably, Paradigm is an investor in Kalshi, one of Polymarket’s closest rivals. This detail fueled arguments about bias and intent. Some users said the repost looked like a move to weaken a competitor.
Others said it was fair to raise questions if the data did not match the real trade action on-chain.
Why the same trade can appear twice
Polymarket trades can work in several ways. Some are simple swaps. Others involve positions that split or merge. When users trade, the system creates multiple blockchain events to make sure every role in the trade is logged.
Makers have posts that sit in the order book and takers match with them, before both sides produce OrderFilled events. Thus, transactions can sometimes appear from two viewpoints.
Some dashboards treat these two entries as separate trades and when they sum everything, the number doubles.
The researcher said this mistake has shown up across most popular dashboards. They added that Polymarket’s data is harder to read than many other platforms because the contract structure has several interacting parts.
Polymarket data bug: volumes are double-counted in most public data
Interesting find in diligence from @notnotstorm https://t.co/xuQ41JUVHf
— Matt Huang (@matthuang) December 8, 2025
The layers confuse block explorers, and the explorers pass that confusion on to anyone who tries to build volume charts without looking deeper.
Supporters of the thread said the charts make sense once the double-counting is removed. They say the issue explains the unusually large public numbers seen on several dashboards over the past year.
Critics, however, said the claim takes a normal market structure and turns it into something more dramatic than it is.
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Analysts respond as arguments grow online
Once the thread began to circulate, analysts and data teams moved to defend their own dashboards.
Some said they already measure only the notional trade size, so their charts never doubled anything. Others said the method used by the researcher ignores industry standards or common ways exchanges report volume.
The tone changed fast when users pointed to Paradigm’s ties to Kalshi. They said the report looked like pressure from a rival camp.
While Matt Huang did not accuse Polymarket of wrongdoing, the timing raised questions. Within hours, the debate worsened from a technical argument to a fight over motives, fairness and competition.
People inside the original thread later clarified that the issue affects third-party dashboards, not Polymarket’s internal accounting.
That softened some of the early claims but did not slow the online reaction.
Source: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/are-polymarkets-trading-figures-being-fabricated-paradigm-weighs-in/