ARB Price Drops 11% as Arbitrum Faces Token Unlock Pressure

Quick Take

• ARB currently trading at $0.44 (-11.29% in 24h)
• Arbitrum’s RSI at 37.52 signals potential oversold bounce ahead
• Major token unlock of 92.65 million ARB tokens creating selling pressure

What’s Driving Arbitrum Price Today?

The ARB price faced significant downward pressure this week following Arbitrum’s release of 92.65 million tokens on September 16, 2025. This substantial unlock, representing approximately 2.03% of the circulating supply, has created a supply overhang that continues to weigh on the token’s performance.

The timing of this unlock coincides with broader market uncertainty, amplifying the negative impact on ARB price action. Large token releases typically create selling pressure as early investors and team members may look to realize profits, and this pattern appears to be playing out for Arbitrum.

Market participants have responded predictably to the increased supply, with trading volume on Binance spot reaching $79.47 million as investors adjust their positions. The ARB price has declined from recent highs, testing key support levels as the market digests the additional tokens.

ARB Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge

Despite an overall bullish classification, Arbitrum technical analysis reveals several concerning short-term indicators. The ARB RSI reading of 37.52 places the token in neutral territory but trending toward oversold conditions, which could signal a potential bounce if buying interest emerges.

Arbitrum’s MACD histogram shows a bearish reading of -0.0079, indicating negative momentum continues to dominate price action. The MACD line itself sits at -0.0058, below the signal line at 0.0021, confirming the bearish short-term trend for ARB.

The Stochastic oscillator presents mixed signals, with %K at 14.53 and %D at 9.84, both in oversold territory. This oversold condition in Arbitrum’s stochastic indicators could suggest a reversal may be approaching, though momentum remains weak.

ARB’s position relative to its Bollinger Bands is particularly telling. With a %B reading of -0.1920, Arbitrum is trading near the lower band support at $0.46, indicating the token has moved significantly below its 20-period moving average of $0.50.

Arbitrum Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, several critical levels are defining ARB’s current trading range. The immediate ARB resistance sits at $0.56, which aligns closely with recent rejection points and represents the first major hurdle for any recovery attempt.

Arbitrum support levels present a more complex picture. The immediate support at $0.42 has already been tested during today’s decline, representing the current floor for ARB price action. Should this level fail, the next major Arbitrum strong support sits at $0.37, which would represent a significant breakdown.

The ARB/USDT pair’s pivot point at $0.45 serves as a crucial battleground between bulls and bears. Trading above this level suggests potential for recovery toward the $0.56 resistance, while a break below could accelerate declines toward the $0.42 support.

Looking at moving averages, ARB price currently trades below all major short-term averages, with the 7-day SMA at $0.49, 20-day at $0.50, and 50-day also at $0.50. Only the 200-day SMA at $0.39 remains below current prices, providing long-term perspective on Arbitrum’s position.

Should You Buy ARB Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

The current ARB price environment presents distinct opportunities and risks for different trading approaches. For short-term traders, the oversold conditions in Arbitrum technical analysis suggest a potential bounce play, particularly if ARB can hold the $0.42 support level.

Swing traders might consider waiting for clearer signals, as the recent token unlock continues to create uncertainty. The risk-reward setup improves significantly if ARB price can reclaim the $0.45 pivot point and show sustained buying interest above this level.

Long-term investors face a different calculation entirely. While the current ARB price of $0.44 represents a substantial discount from the 52-week high of $0.82, the token unlock overhang may continue pressuring prices in the near term. The strong support at $0.37 offers a compelling entry point for patient investors willing to weather potential further declines.

Risk management remains crucial regardless of strategy. Stop-loss levels below $0.42 for short-term positions and below $0.37 for longer-term holds provide logical exit points if the bearish momentum accelerates.

Conclusion

ARB price action reflects the immediate impact of significant token supply increases, with technical indicators confirming short-term bearish pressure. However, oversold conditions in Arbitrum’s RSI and stochastic readings suggest a potential reversal could emerge if buying interest returns. Traders should monitor the $0.42 support level closely over the next 24-48 hours, as a break below this level could trigger further declines toward $0.37, while a successful defense might spark a relief rally toward $0.45-$0.56 resistance zone.

Image source: Shutterstock