Aptos price prediction: Will APT break free or plunge to $4.30?

• Aptos’ token unlocking and technical patterns pointed to potential bearish momentum.
• Aocial metrics and Open Interest signaled weakening interest and reduced market participation.

Aptos [APT] was approaching a critical point as bearish signals and declining interest weighed on its outlook, sparking concerns of a significant price drop.

At press time, APT traded at $8.36, reflecting a 2.61% increase over the last 24 hours. 

Despite this minor rebound, market conditions, technical patterns, and social data hinted at further downside risks. Can Aptos reverse its bearish trajectory, or is a drop to $4.30 inevitable?

The unlocking event: Opportunity or risk?

On the 10th of February 2025, 11,310,000 APT tokens will be unlocked, increasing the circulating supply by 1.98%.

Historically, such events have introduced significant selling pressure as early investors look to offload tokens for profit. 

For APT, this influx could challenge its current price stability. However, if demand remains strong, the price may hold or even attract buyers at lower levels.

Additionally, market participants will closely watch trading volumes to gauge sentiment during and after the unlocking event.

APT’s technical outlook: Where is it headed?

The Aptos price chart reveals a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, signaling potential downside. The neckline at $8.05 represented a critical support level, with a breach likely confirming a decline toward $4.30. 

However, a close above $10.50 could invalidate this bearish structure and reignite bullish momentum.

The stakes are high as current price action reflected uncertainty, leaving traders watching for either a breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions.

Source: TradingView

Is interest fading?

Social metrics revealed a concerning trend for Aptos, with Social Dominance dropping to just 0.064% and social volume sitting at 4, far below previous peaks.

These figures highlighted waning interest among retail traders and the broader crypto community. 

A lack of engagement can weaken sentiment, potentially amplifying price declines. Therefore, a significant uptick in social activity could be crucial in revitalizing APT’s momentum and attracting new buyers.

Source: Santiment

Read Aptos’ [APT] Price Prediction 2024–2025

Open Interest: What does it mean for APT?

Open interest in APT Futures has fallen to $55.79 million, reflecting a sharp decline in market participation. This drop signals reduced confidence among traders and a lack of speculative interest in the asset. 

Declining Open Interest can limit price volatility, leaving the market more susceptible to continued downward pressure. Without fresh capital inflows, the bearish sentiment is likely to persist in the short term.

Source: Santiment