TLDR
- Apple earnings scheduled for January 29 with analysts expecting $2.67 EPS and $138 billion revenue, representing 11.3% year-over-year growth
- Stock down 8-9% in 2026 but average price target of $298 suggests 20% upside potential from current levels
- Morgan Stanley keeps Overweight rating at $315 but warns of sideways trading post-earnings due to margin and cost pressures
- iPhone 17 demand exceeds Wall Street expectations with December unit sales hitting 84.5-85.0 million units
- Analysts split with 19 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell ratings as concerns grow about second-half fiscal year performance
Apple reports fiscal 2026 first-quarter results on January 29. Wall Street expects strong numbers but remains cautious about what comes next.
Apple Inc., AAPL
Consensus estimates call for $2.67 earnings per share and $138 billion in revenue. Both metrics show 11.3% growth versus the prior year. The iPhone 17 lineup and Services business drive the anticipated gains.
The stock has fallen 8-9% this year. Despite the decline, analysts maintain an average price target of $298. That implies roughly 20% upside from current trading levels.
Wall Street’s overall rating stands at Moderate Buy. The breakdown includes 19 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings.
Morgan Stanley Sees Underappreciated iPhone Strength
Morgan Stanley holds its Overweight rating with a $315 price target. The firm believes most analysts underestimate iPhone 17 performance. Morgan Stanley’s iPhone revenue forecasts run 4-8% above consensus for both December and March quarters.
The investment bank tempers enthusiasm with a key warning. It expects the stock to trade sideways or modestly lower following Thursday’s earnings release.
Several factors could limit positive earnings revisions. Consensus estimates miss March quarter operating expenses by 7%. Morgan Stanley also projects gross margins 30 basis points below Street expectations.
Memory cost pressures pose additional risks. These headwinds aren’t fully reflected in June quarter EPS estimates. Historical patterns also work against Apple, as the stock typically underperforms the S&P 500 by 400 basis points in the first calendar quarter.
Analyst Community Remains Divided
Goldman Sachs takes a more bullish stance. The bank maintains its Buy rating with a $320 price target. Goldman views the recent 5% pullback as a buying opportunity and projects 9% iPhone revenue growth through fiscal 2027.
KeyBanc’s Brandon Nispel offers a more cautious perspective with a Hold rating. While near-term iPhone and Mac trends look healthy, Nispel warns investors may be too optimistic about second-half performance. Higher iPhone average selling prices and robust production builds support current strength.
UBS sticks with its Neutral rating at $280. The firm estimated December 2025 iPhone unit sales reached 84.5-85.0 million, demonstrating solid demand for the iPhone 17.
Product Pipeline and Market Expansion Continue
Beyond the core business, Apple pursues new opportunities. The company develops an AI-powered wearable pin with multiple cameras, speaker, microphones, and wireless charging. Discussions with Mastercard and Visa continue regarding a potential digital payments service launch in India during 2026.
Institutional investors control the majority of Apple shares. Vanguard entities rank among the top shareholders. Individual and public company investors hold just over 61% of outstanding shares.
Goldman Sachs forecasts $2.66 EPS for the first quarter, matching FactSet consensus. UBS notes strong iPhone 17 demand with December unit sales data supporting bullish production forecasts for the March quarter.
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