Key Highlights
- Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight stance on Apple with a price target of $315
- The firm’s AlphaWise survey conducted in late 2025 revealed iPhone upgrade intentions reached unprecedented levels
- Upgrade rates in China surged 9 percentage points compared to the previous year
- Apple is projected to be the sole major smartphone manufacturer gaining market share in 2026
- Consumer interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features showed year-over-year weakness
Apple received an uplift on Monday following Morgan Stanley’s release of its AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey results from late 2025, which highlighted exceptional iPhone replacement activity anticipated for 2026.
Apple Inc., AAPL
Shares climbed approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Erik Woodring, the analyst behind the report who maintains an Overweight recommendation, reaffirmed his $315 valuation target. According to Woodring, the survey results support his thesis that Apple’s competitive position exceeds current Wall Street expectations.
The global blended upgrade rate for iPhones reached 37% in the survey results — representing a 2 percentage point increase from the prior year and establishing a new record for the survey’s history. In China, a region that has generated investor apprehension, upgrade intentions jumped 9 percentage points year-over-year, also hitting survey records.
Apple stock was hovering near that price level entering Monday’s session, with the tech giant commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E ratio of 31.47.
The survey revealed switching rates to Apple reached a five-year peak. Desired average storage capacity increased 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of surveyed users in the installed base expressed interest in a foldable iPhone — a device category Apple has not yet entered.
iPhone Sales Projections Exceed Consensus
Based on the survey data, Woodring stated his expectation that Apple will stand alone among major global smartphone producers in capturing market share gains throughout 2026.
His iPhone revenue projection for fiscal 2026 exceeds Street consensus by 3%, forecasting 6% growth compared to the consensus estimate of 3%. For fiscal 2027, his forecast sits 4% above consensus — which would represent the most robust consecutive two-year iPhone growth period in more than a decade, according to Woodring.
Apple generated $435.6 billion in revenue during the trailing twelve months, reflecting 10% growth.
Area of Concern
The survey wasn’t uniformly positive. Consumer sentiment regarding Apple Intelligence — the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities — along with willingness to purchase these features both deteriorated year-over-year.
Rising memory costs are also anticipated to drive global smartphone pricing higher, with Android manufacturers perceived as better positioned to capitalize on this dynamic compared to Apple.
Additional Wall Street firms have recently issued commentary. BofA reduced its Apple valuation target to $320 from a previous level while maintaining a Buy recommendation, citing anticipated foldable iPhone introduction in 2026. Bernstein confirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s approach of expanding its price point spectrum to capture additional market share.
Apple’s Chief Operating Officer Sabih Khan recently toured the company’s Shenzhen research facility and engaged with supply chain collaborators — demonstrating sustained operational attention on the Chinese market.
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