Multi-timeframe analysis
ALGO Analysis — D1 (daily)
Price closes at 0.18, below the EMA20 (0.19), EMA50 (0.20), and EMA200 (0.23). This alignment signals a bearish trend, with rallies likely facing supply at each moving average.
RSI(14) prints 42.05, sitting under the 50 line. This indicates sellers hold a modest advantage, and upside attempts may fade unless momentum improves.
MACD line -0.01 vs signal -0.01 with a near-zero histogram. Momentum is flat; direction could hinge on breaks of nearby levels rather than trend acceleration.
Bollinger Bands: mid 0.19, upper 0.21, lower 0.17. Price near the lower half suggests pressure persists while volatility remains contained inside the band.
ATR(14) at 0.01 implies relatively tight daily ranges; risk should be sized conservatively as small moves can still trip tight stops.
Daily pivot: PP 0.18, R1 0.19, S1 0.18. With PP and S1 overlapping, the pivot cluster underscores compression; clean acceptance above 0.19 is needed to shift tone.
H1 (hourly)
Price sits at 0.18, on the EMA20 (0.18) but below EMA50/EMA200 (0.19). Intraday bias is neutral-to-soft; sellers cap bounces near 0.19.
RSI(14) at 45.21 reflects muted demand; buyers seem hesitant on upticks.
MACD flat around zero with no histogram build. Momentum lacks conviction, so range trading dominates.
Bollinger mid 0.18 with narrow bands 0.18–0.19. Tight bands signal compression that could precede a move, likely triggered by a pivot break.
ATR(14) reads 0.00 (practically negligible). This points to very low intraday volatility; execution may favor patience over chase entries.
M15 (15‑min)
Price at 0.18 hovers on EMA20/EMA50 (0.18) and below EMA200 (0.19). Micro-structure leans bearish while below 0.19.
RSI(14) at 44.69 keeps momentum fragile; quick fades likely into resistance.
MACD near zero and bands 0.18–0.19 show short-term compression; a breakout could be impulsive but may lack follow-through without D1 confirmation.
Across timeframes: D1 is bearish, H1 is neutral, and M15 tilts bearish. Overall, a cautious, range-biased structure unless 0.19 breaks decisively.
Trading scenarios
Bearish (main D1 scenario)
Trigger: Rejection near 0.19 (EMA20/R1) and a break below 0.18 pivot.
Target: 0.17 (Bollinger lower band). Invalidation: Daily close back above 0.19.
Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× ATR ≈ 0.005–0.01 USDT to align with volatility.
Bullish ALGO analysis
Trigger: Sustained reclaim of 0.19 with H1 confirmation above the mid-band.
Targets: 0.20 (EMA50), then 0.21 (upper band). Invalidation: Return below 0.18 pivot.
Risk: Volatility remains contained (ATR 0.01); stops sized near 0.005–0.01 USDT could fit range conditions.
Neutral ALGO analysis
Trigger: Price holds between 0.18–0.19 with flat momentum.
Target: Mean reversion toward 0.18/0.19. Invalidation: Break and acceptance beyond 0.17 or 0.19.
Risk: Low ATR favors patience; avoid chasing moves inside the range.
This ALGO Analysis keeps a downside tilt unless 0.19 is reclaimed with conviction.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3816199023991.56 USD; 24h change: -1.98%. BTC dominance: 57.66%. Fear & Greed Index: 34 (Fear).
High BTC dominance and a fearful backdrop usually weigh on altcoins, making confirmation levels even more important this week.
Ecosystem (DeFi or chain)
Talking about Algorand DeFi, Tinyman shows fees change +22.39% (1d), +32.28% (7d), +92.81% (30d), while Pact prints -38.44% (1d) and -59.17% (7d). Alpha Arcade trends lower across periods, and Humble DeFi plus Algofi Swap report totals without short-term changes.
Mixed fee dynamics suggest selective participation across DeFi venues, consistent with cautious liquidity conditions.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/10/30/algo-analysis-bearish-d1/