ADA Technical Analysis Feb 23

ADA is currently maintaining the LH/LL structure in a downtrend; is a trend change possible with BOS above $0.28?

Market Structure Overview

Cardano (ADA) is continuing its short-term downtrend, trading at its current price level of $0.27. The market structure is characterized by the lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern formed recently; this indicates that bearish momentum is dominant. Trading below EMA20 ($0.28) on the daily timeframe reinforces the short-term bearish structure. Although the 24-hour change is +%0.48, the overall range is stuck between $0.26-$0.28, and BOS (Break of Structure) is awaited for expansion. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects a total of 10 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W: 3 supports/2 resistances in 1D, 1S/1R in 3D, 2S/3R distribution in 1W, indicating resistance weight in higher timeframes. RSI at 42.30 is in the neutral zone, although the positive histogram in MACD gives a bullish divergence signal, structural bearishness is in the foreground. There is no significant news flow, so we are proceeding with a pure price action focus.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

No clear signal yet for higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL); as long as the current $0.27 level stays below the last LH at $0.2800, bullish continuation remains weak. For potential HL formation, the $0.2718 support must hold, and price must break the $0.2898 resistance with BOS. The positivity in the MACD histogram could be a warning before a possible CHoCH (Change of Character); however, closing above EMA20 is required. Bullish target $0.3649 (score:26), but confirmation of the weekly HH structure is necessary for this level. In the short term, a retest above $0.28 could strengthen the HL pattern and open the door for trend continuation.

Downtrend Risk

The current LH/LL structure is clear: After the last swing high at $0.2898, $0.2800 LH formed, followed by testing $0.2718 LL. This pattern confirms the downtrend, and new LLs may come with a break of $0.2534. Supertrend bearish signal aligns with $0.32 resistance; BTC downtrend also increases LL risk in altcoins. Bearish target $0.1419 (score:22), which can accelerate with violation of $0.2205 support. Attention: Continuation of LH/LL overrides bullish signals in momentum indicators.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels are critical for trend change: For bullish BOS, closing above $0.2898 swing high is required; this invalidates the last LH and signals transition to HL pattern. Then, $0.32 Supertrend resistance is targeted. Bearish BOS is the break of $0.2534 swing low; this level (score:67/100) is strong support, its violation confirms bearish CHoCH and leads to $0.2205. $0.2718 (score:62) is an intermediate level, providing protection against false breakouts. In MTF, 1W resistances (3R) make bullish BOS difficult; therefore, daily closes will be decisive. BOS definition: Breaking the previous swing point with momentum, starting a new structure.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.2898 (score:69/100, main resistance), $0.2800 (score:66/100, LH level). These points form the roof of the bearish structure; BOS above $0.2898 breaks the structure and opens the door to HH. Importance: Rejections trigger LLs, breakouts confirm reversal. For short-term trading, monitor retest around $0.28.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.2534 (score:67/100, major support), $0.2718 (score:62/100, local HL candidate), $0.2205 (score:61/100, deep support). These levels hold the base of the bearish structure; holding $0.2534 gives hope for short-term bounce, but a break deepens LH/LL. Swing lows play a role as support in HL pattern; holding them increases bullish bias.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $66,312 ($65,632-$64,072 supports critical), pressuring altcoins with 24h -%1.97 change. ADA is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC cannot break $67,640 resistance, LH/LL continues in ADA and $0.2534 risk increases. BTC breakdown below $60,000 accelerates ADA’s bearish target ($0.1419). Conversely, BTC recovery above $69,434 supports ADA’s $0.2898 BOS. BTC Dominance rise is a caution signal for alts; bearish Supertrend on BTC negatively affects ADA structure. Main BTC levels: Support $65,632/$64,072, Resistance $67,640/$69,434.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominant, short bias preserved as long as below $0.28. Bullish invalidation: $0.2898 BOS + above EMA20; this signals transition to HL with CHoCH. Bearish scenario: Break of $0.2534 leads to test of $0.2205 with new LLs. MTF resistance weight delays reversal; wait for price action BOSs. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; HH/HL defines bullish trend, LH/LL bearish trend – each swing point provides new information. Risk management: Set stop-loss according to swing lows/highs. For spot, check ADA Spot Analysis, for futures ADA Futures Analysis. (Word count: ~1050)