AAVE Technical Analysis Jan 23

The expansion of the MACD histogram in the negative region in AAVE and the price trading below EMA20 indicate that short-term momentum remains weak; although RSI at 43.59 is in the neutral zone, the downtrend is dominant.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

AAVE is trading at the 158.10 dollar level as of January 23, 2026, and showing a slight 0.50% decline in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between 155.11-160.04 dollars, while volume remained around 190.72 million dollars, indicating that momentum has not yet given a strong reversal signal. The overall trend direction continues downward; the price is positioned below EMA20 (164.82 dollars) and the Supertrend indicator is also giving a bear signal, with the resistance level standing out at 185.41 dollars. In the confluence of momentum oscillators, the bearish position of MACD and RSI’s 43.59 value dominate a neutral but weak picture. In this context, a scenario is prominent where short-term trend strength has decreased but additional confirmations are awaited for bottom formation. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 13 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes; 1D has 3 supports/2 resistances, 3D has 1 support/2 resistances, and 1W has 3 supports/4 resistances distribution, revealing that resistances generally prevail. Main supports are ranked at 143.63 dollars (67/100 score), 154.91 dollars (66/100), and 148.95 dollars (62/100), while resistances at 161.95 dollars (68/100) and 208.75 dollars (66/100) are critical thresholds. Bearish target is tracked at 100.01 dollars (22 score), bullish target at 208.75 dollars (31 score).

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is currently at 43.59 level and positioned in the neutral zone, not triggering overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions. No regular bearish divergence is observed recently; as price makes new lows, RSI is not forming higher lows, implying that the downside momentum is still healthy. There is also no clear signal in the search for hidden bullish divergence, as RSI is trading in a down channel and showing persistence below the 50 level. This situation indicates that buyers have not yet taken control and selling pressure may continue. If RSI slides toward the 30 level, it can be monitored for a potential oversold bounce, but with the current 43.59 value, momentum is neutral-negative leaning.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 43.59 is approaching the oversold region but has not yet entered it. Weakness was confirmed with the drop below 50 in previous days, but since volume confirmation remained low, a strong reversal is not expected. In momentum confluence, RSI exhibits bearish tendency in line with MACD; if it falls below the 40 level, momentum toward the 143.63 dollar support may increase.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in a bearish position and the histogram is expanding in the negative region, confirming that selling momentum is strengthening. The signal line crossover is completed downward and the MACD line is trading below the signal. The size of histogram bars appears to have increased in recent sessions, indicating that the downtrend is gaining momentum; if there were contraction, it would be a weakness signal, but the current expansion reinforces bears’ control. Persistence below the zero line makes the short-term outlook negative. If the histogram starts to contract and a bullish crossover forms (MACD crosses signal upward), a test toward 161.95 dollar resistance may come, but current dynamics highlight sell signals. Negative histogram supported by volume may bring the test of 154.91 dollar support into play.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is trading below EMA20 (164.82 dollars), clearly defining the short-term trend as bearish. There is no squeeze between EMA10 and EMA20, the ribbon is opening downward and reflecting momentum loss. If price breaks above EMA20, the first bullish confirmation can be obtained, but the current position emphasizes weakness.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 levels form support in the 170-180 dollar band, but a strong rally is needed for price to reach there. Long-term EMA200 is around 200 dollars and currently distant; ribbon dynamics support the downtrend, with distance between EMAs widening. In trend strength measurement, the bearish tilt of the EMA ribbon shows that momentum remains weak in the medium term as well. An EMA support test around 148.95 dollars can be expected.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is at 89,184.94 dollar level and in a downtrend with a 0.94% decline in the last 24 hours; main supports at 88,269, 86,739, and 84,681 dollars, resistances at 89,422, 91,132, and 94,276 dollars. BTC Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and increasing dominance poses risk for altcoins. AAVE is highly correlated with BTC (usually 0.85+), so if BTC slides below 88,269, pressure on AAVE’s 143.63 dollar support increases. Recovery in BTC (above 89,422) could carry AAVE to 161.95 resistance, but current BTC weakness is suppressing altcoin momentum. Check detailed data for AAVE Spot Analysis and AAVE Futures Analysis.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

The overall momentum picture is bearish weighted; RSI at 43.59 is neutral but no divergence, MACD with negative histogram expansion for selling momentum, EMA ribbon bearish opening, and Supertrend bearish signal with trend strength downward. Volume is modest at 190 million dollars, accumulation/distribution pattern is weak, selling pressure dominates. MTF confluence with 13 levels shows support/resistance balance in favor of resistance. In the short term, support test at 154.91-143.63 dollars, and in breakout, 100 dollar bearish target can be tracked; above, 161.95 dollar breakout is key for momentum reversal. BTC downtrend limits altcoins, weakness is prominent in oscillator confluence. To watch: RSI below 30 oversold, MACD histogram contraction, or EMA20 breakout. Market is volatile, momentum signals are variable.