Key Insights:
- Bitcoin has dropped about 9% after each CPI release, forming a recurring post-report trend.
- Bulls see a breakout above resistance, while bears warn of another CPI-driven selloff ahead.
- On-chain MVRV ratio nears a cross, a signal that previously marked major Bitcoin moves.
Bitcoin has been under pressure after recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases, recording an average decline of around -9%. Data shared by analyst Ali Martinez shows that every CPI update in recent months has been followed by a sharp move lower.
In June 2025, Bitcoin dropped -10.83% (-$13,338) after the numbers came out. The July release brought a smaller but still steep fall of -6.95% (-$7,900). August showed another sharp reaction, with the price sliding -10.64% (-$12,798). These repeated selloffs suggest traders are cautious about how inflation readings could affect Federal Reserve policy and risk assets.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading close to $114,120. This marks a modest rebound from the latest decline, but investors are watching carefully to see if the pattern repeats with the next CPI update.
Short-Term Moves Under Watch
Analyst Ted noted that in the last three releases, Bitcoin climbed before the CPI announcement and then fell right after. He wrote,
“$BTC current price action is exactly mimicking past CPI price action.”
If the same setup plays out again, Bitcoin could face another round of selling once the latest figures are published. For now, traders are split between expecting a repeat of the recent trend or a shift driven by technical momentum.
A contrasting view comes from Marcus Corvinus, who shared a chart showing Bitcoin breaking above a descending resistance line. He pointed out that the price built a base in the $107,000–$108,000 range, creating a double-bottom pattern before moving higher.
After this move, Bitcoin jumped around +5%, reaching $113,700 in the following sessions. The breakout turned the old resistance into new support, signaling a possible change in trend. Corvinus stated,
“The breakout looks clean. Bulls are fully in control now.”
His chart suggested that if momentum continues, Bitcoin could test higher levels around $120,000–$125,000.
MVRV Ratio Signals a Crossroad
On-chain metrics also suggest that the market may be near a turning point. Analyst ChainSpan reported that Bitcoin’s daily Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is at 2.15, nearly matching the 30-day average of 2.159. The two lines are close to crossing, a setup that has often coincided with large market shifts.
Past movements in this indicator were followed by strong swings. In November 2024, an upward cross came before a rally from $60,000 to more than $90,000. In March 2025, a downward cross preceded a fall from $100,000 to $80,000. Another upward cross in June 2025 saw Bitcoin climb from $80,000 to $110,000.
While the indicator now points to a possible bullish wave, the current level is not considered cheap by historical standards. That means further gains could come with volatility and profit-taking along the way.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/bitcoins-cpi-curse-in-recent-months/