61.8% Fibonacci Key for Year-End Rally

Solana ($SOL) has been under close observation after a volatile period of sharp rallies and swift retracements. According to analyst Trader_XO, $SOL took 12 days to climb from $200 to $253, only for most of the gains to reverse in just seven days. 

This quick unwind raises concerns about market strength and suggests a potential shift in context. Trader_XO notes that a lower high could present another selling opportunity, reflecting the cautious sentiment among traders.

61.8% Fibonacci: A Crucial Support Level

Ardi, another market analyst, highlights that Solana recently hit the $202 target, closely aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $203. This level acts as a crucial support, as holding above it could reinforce a bullish continuation. Brief dips below $200 may occur, but strong buying interest could drive $SOL toward $220–$236. 

Source: X

Conversely, failing to maintain $202 on multiple daily closes could open deeper correction levels at $176 and $156. Moreover, resistance levels at $246 and $260 will test bullish momentum if $SOL reclaims $220 quickly. Ardi emphasizes that market structure remains favorable for a year-end rally if buyers maintain control.

Sol Strategies and Treasury Pressure

However, external factors may weigh on Solana’s trajectory. TedPillows reports that Sol Strategies, one of the largest Solana treasury companies holding 434,511 $SOL, has seen a dramatic decline from $19 to $7, marking a 63% drop. 

The sudden exit of its CEO adds further uncertainty. Until Solana strategy companies regain stability, $SOL may continue facing downward pressure. Consequently, traders should monitor both treasury activity and market sentiment to gauge potential rebounds.

ETF Approval Could Influence Market

Adding another layer to Solana’s outlook, the U.S. SEC faces an October 10 deadline to rule on a proposed Solana spot ETF. Approval would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to $SOL without directly holding the asset. 

Growing interest in crypto ETFs, following prior Bitcoin product approvals, could generate increased institutional participation. Hence, market participants are closely tracking regulatory developments, which could significantly influence short- and long-term price movements.

Market Outlook

As of press time, $SOL trades around $201.15, reflecting a 5% decline over 24 hours and an 18% drop over the past week. With a circulating supply of 540 million tokens, Solana’s market cap stands near $109 billion.