$430 or a Major Crash Next?

 Key Insights:

• Zcash trades below EMA resistance as sellers control momentum and price fails to reclaim $430.
• Liquidation data shows long traders forced out as downside pressure grows near key support levels.
• Daily double top structure remains intact with downside targets between $234 and $242 in focus.

Zcash (ZEC) has dropped below its entire 1-hour EMA stack. This setup now acts as overhead resistance. The breakdown reflects a shift in short-term direction, with sellers holding control as price fails to regain earlier support levels.

The pattern mirrors ZEC’s price action from November. Back then, prices formed a double top near $775 and $747, then reversed sharply. A similar move is now developing, with twin peaks near $455 and $460. Price has since pulled back, and a trendline from early December is now being tested again. The trendline has held so far, but pressure is building.

$430 Still the Key Level

ZEC was trading around $414 after falling 7% in the last 24 hours. Over the past 7 days, the price has remained up 4.6%. However, the failure to reclaim the $430 level is raising concern. This level has been tested but not reclaimed. Without a move above it, sellers are likely to stay in control.

Analyst Ardi noted,

 “unless it reclaims $430, probability still favors a rollover.” 

Moreover, the Price is currently sitting just above key short-term support. If this level breaks, a drop toward the $370 area could follow. That zone marks the neckline of the broader double top and would be a critical test.

Liquidations Reflect Market Pressure

Data from Coinglass shows long liquidations at $1.65 million compared to just $163,400 on the short side. This large gap suggests most liquidations came from traders betting on the upside. The recent drop caught many off guard, especially during price rejections near the supply zone.

The last major wave of long liquidations occurred in mid-November, which lined up with ZEC’s fall from $600+ levels. Similar behavior is being seen now. The market is shedding long exposure, and the imbalance continues to support downside pressure.

Double Top Target Points Lower

ZEC continues to follow a double top pattern on the daily chart. After rejecting near $775 and $747, the structure remains intact. Price broke below the neckline and has struggled to move back above resistance. The $470–$480 zone remains capped and has now been rejected twice.

Enri.hl stated, “price has almost completed a second re-test of the bear supply zone,” while also noting “clear bearish RSI divergence” on the 4H chart. The downside target from the double top sits between $234 and $242. A separate projection using the $301–$477 range points to an extended move toward the $190 area if pressure continues.