Key takeaways:
XRP validates a bearish descending triangle, risking a 25% drop to $1.55.
A bearish divergence from the weekly RSI points to increasing downward momentum.
Low daily active addresses signal muted network activity and liquidity, amplifying XRP sell-off risk.
XRP price traded 11% below its value a week ago, and a convergence of several data points signals a deeper correction toward $1.55.
XRP descending triangle hints at a 45% price drop
The XRP (XRP) price chart confirmed a descending triangle pattern on its eight-hour chart since dropping below the $3 psychological level in October.
A descending triangle chart pattern — characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line — resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.
Related: XRP ‘structurally fragile’ as 41.5% of supply at a loss
The XRP/USD pair confirmed the descending triangle when it dropped below the support line of the pattern at $2.20 on Monday.
The bulls are fighting to keep XRP above the $2 support. A breakdown of this level will likely see XRP price fall toward the measured target of the triangle at $1.55 by the end of November, representing a 25% decline from current price levels.
XRP’s descending triangle breakdown echoes an earlier analysis which warned of a possible decline to as low as $1.61 if key support levels don’t hold.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap shows that a large cluster of supply sits between $2.38 and $2.40 (embraced by the 100-day SMA and the triangle’s resistance line), where nearly 3.23 billion XRP were acquired. This marks an area of stiff resistance for XRP, adding to the tailwinds.
XRP’s bearish divergence
XRP’s downside is supported by a bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI).
The weekly chart below shows that the XRP/USD pair rose between November 2024 and July 2025, forming higher highs within a rising channel. However, during the same period, its weekly RSI declined to 68 from 92, forming lower highs, as illustrated in the weekly chart below.
A divergence between rising prices and a falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the prevailing uptrend, prompting traders to sell more at local highs as profit-taking intensifies and buyer exhaustion sets in.
The RSI has since dropped to 39, suggesting that the market conditions still favor the downside.
The chart above also reveals that XRP faces stiff resistance from the 50-week SMA at $2.32. Overhead pressure from this level could continue suppressing XRP’s price over the next few weeks.
Declining XRP Ledger network activity
Network activity on the XRP Ledger has remained muted over the last four months. Onchain data from Glassnode reveals that the daily active addresses (DAAs) on the network are now far below the high of 577,000 DAAs, recorded on June 14.
With only about 44,000 DAAs at the time of writing, user transactions have declined significantly, possibly signaling reduced interest or a lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term outlook.
New addresses have also dropped to the current 4,000 daily from 13,500 on Nov. 10, suggesting declining network adoption and user engagement.
Historically, declines in network activity typically signal upcoming price stagnation or drops, as lower transaction volume reduces liquidity and buying momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.