$13.59M Spot Inflows Support Triangle Breakout Attempt At $3,100

• Ethereum holds $3,093 inside triangle pattern as $13.59 million in spot inflows signal accumulation after weeks of outflows.

• Open interest climbs 0.83% to $40.37 billion while volume collapses 69%, showing stable positioning ahead of pattern resolution.

• Long/short ratios hit 2.52 on Binance as traders position for breakout, but price remains below Supertrend resistance at $3,296.

Ethereum price today trades near $3,093 after recording $13.59 million in spot inflows on January 11, reversing the distribution pattern that pressured ETH throughout December. The token is consolidating inside a triangle pattern that has compressed volatility for weeks, with network upgrade catalysts on the horizon as analysts maintain targets between $4,000 and $9,000 for 2026.

Spot Inflows Reverse December Distribution Trend

ETH Netflows (Source: Coinglass)

Exchange flow data shows $13.59 million in net inflows on January 11, marking a shift from the persistent outflows that characterized December’s decline. When spot flows turn positive after extended distribution, it typically signals traders are moving capital back onto exchanges to position for directional moves rather than exiting.

The timing aligns with Ethereum’s triangle compression, where volatility has declined to levels that historically precede sharp breakouts or breakdowns. Inflows suggest participants are preparing for upside rather than continued weakness, though the pattern has not yet confirmed.

Derivatives Show Long Bias Despite Volume Collapse

ETH Derivatives Analysis (Source: Coinglass)

Futures data reveals conflicting signals. Open interest climbed 0.83 percent to $40.37 billion, showing stable positioning with minimal deleveraging. However, volume collapsed 69.23 percent to $15.62 billion, marking one of the quietest sessions in months.

Options volume dropped 33.15 percent to $378.11 million, while options open interest fell 0.41 percent to $7.12 billion. The combination of flat open interest and plunging volume suggests traders are waiting rather than betting aggressively ahead of the triangle resolution.

Long/short ratios show heavy bullish bias. Binance accounts reflect a 2.52 ratio favoring longs, while OKX sits at 2.13. Top traders on Binance show 2.62 long/short positioning, indicating professional participants are leaning bullish despite the stagnant price action.

The 24-hour aggregate long/short ratio sits at 1.11, moderately bullish. However, the account-level skew toward longs creates squeeze risk if price breaks the triangle to the downside. When leverage is stacked on one side and a key level fails, follow-through is typically stronger.

Triangle Pattern Tests Resistance At $3,120

ETH Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Ethereum price today trades inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, with resistance near $3,120 and support at $3,060. The pattern has compressed volatility since early January, and the apex is approaching, which typically forces a resolution.

The Parabolic SAR reads $3,053, sitting just below current price. This indicates short-term momentum remains neutral to bullish as long as ETH holds above this level. However, the Supertrend indicator at $3,296 remains bearish, sitting well above current price and marking the first major resistance zone.

A descending trendline that has guided the decline since October sits near $3,140, creating a double resistance barrier. Buyers need to break both the triangle upper boundary and the trendline to shift structure from bearish to bullish.

Short Term Chart Shows Bullish Momentum Building

ETH 30-Min Chart (Source: TradingView)

The 30-minute timeframe shows Ethereum consolidating at the upper end of the triangle pattern near $3,093. The RSI reads 56.77, neutral with a bullish lean after recovering from oversold conditions earlier in the week.

The MACD shows positive momentum at 0.24, with the signal lines at 1.46 and 1.22 forming a bullish crossover. This typically precedes upside moves on shorter timeframes, though confirmation requires a break above triangle resistance.

Price is testing the $3,100 level, which has acted as both support and resistance multiple times over the past sessions. A clean break above $3,120 with volume would confirm the triangle breakout and target $3,200 initially, with further upside toward the Supertrend resistance at $3,296 if momentum sustains.

Network Upgrades Provide 2026 Catalyst Framework

Network upgrade catalysts provide fundamental support. The Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for the first half of 2026, followed by the Hegota update in the second half. Both focus on improving scaling capacity and transaction efficiency, though analysts note these improvements may not immediately impact price without corresponding demand.

Conservative estimates suggest ETH could reach $4,000 based on anticipated network upgrades and institutional adoption trends.

More optimistic projections from prominent analysts range between $7,000 and $9,000 by early 2026, though such targets would require extraordinary market conditions and sustained institutional adoption. The upgrades scheduled for both halves of 2026 provide a fundamental catalyst framework that could support gradual rerating if execution delivers measurable improvements.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?

The triangle resolution will determine near-term direction. If ETH breaks above $3,120 with volume and reclaims the descending trendline, the structure shifts bullish. That would target $3,296 initially, with further upside toward $3,500 if the Supertrend flips and momentum builds.

If price loses $3,060 and breaks the triangle to the downside, the pattern completes bearishly. That exposes $3,000 support, with deeper downside toward $2,900-$2,800 if selling accelerates and over-leveraged longs unwind.

Breaking $3,120 confirms upside. Losing $3,060 activates correction risk.