$116K Test or $93K Risk Ahead

Key Points:

• BTC clusters show strong resistance near $117K–$120K with 600K coins moved.
• Cost-basis models place elevated risk near $120K–$130K.
• ETF flows remain subdued, limiting institutional momentum.

Bitcoin trades in a narrow band between $104,000 and $116,000 after significant investor absorption. However, cooling demand in futures and ETF flows underscores fragile sentiment.

Clusters in realized price distribution remain notable at $21,000, $57,000, and $117,000–$120,000, with over 600,000 BTC moved near $120,000. Thus, this range highlights potential resistance and support as traders watch the $115,000–$120,000 cluster.

Cost-basis models place the 0.95 quantile between $120,000 and $130,000, suggesting stretched risk relative to historic averages. Moreover, the 0.85 quantile sits between $90,000 and $100,000, while the 0.75 quantile rests around $70,000–$80,000.

Bitcoin currently trades close to $110,000–$115,000, aligning near the upper cost bands. Therefore, consolidation within this high range may delay a decisive breakout.

Investor Behavior and Institutional Signals

Short-term holders remain a critical risk signal as profitability now oscillates around 60% after plunging from over 90%. Yet, previous rallies show profit readings above 80% often align with overheated markets, while levels near 30% indicate stress.

The neutral mean remains near 50%, with overheated thresholds at approximately 0.7 and 0.9. Hence, current readings signal fragile but balanced market positioning.

Institutional dynamics also add weight as CME open interest and ETF flows provide directional signals. Strong ETF inflows from February to March 2024 lifted Bitcoin from $45,000 to $70,000, while sharp outflows in early 2025 coincided with the decline from above $100,000 to $80,000.

Since then, ETF flows have slowed while open interest has remained weak. Consequently, Bitcoin trades with muted institutional support compared to earlier rallies.

Overall, the $116,000 level stands as the decisive resistance for renewed momentum, but weakness risks a slide toward $93,000–$95,000. Therefore, traders continue to monitor liquidity zones and institutional behavior to gauge the next major trend.