Oil Prices Are Soaring. It’s Time to Hedge or Sell.

At the top of Americans’ concerns is rising inflation, especially soaring prices for energy, filling their gasoline tanks, or paying their monthly utility bills. And investors and traders have ridden ...

Scorned Treasury Bonds Could Be Good Bet After Fed Boosts Rates

Rarely has there been such unanimity of opinion among both Federal Reserve officials and the cadre of analysts who track and try to predict their future moves. Monetary policy will be tightened with a...

What Will Stocks Do if War—or Peace—Erupts in Ukraine?

Text size A Ukrainian guard at a checkpoint on the border with Russia. There could be a financial toll, as well as a heavy human one, if the Kremlin launches an invasion. Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinf...

Inflation, Interest-Rate Jitters, and Putin Are Brewing a Fierce Storm for the Stock Market

Text size A Ukrainian soldier in the Kharkiv region near the Russian border. Will Putin pull the trigger on an invasion? Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images We were waist deep in the Big Muddy, and the big ...

The Jobs Report Reveals a Booming Labor Market. Here’s Where Interest Rates Are Headed.

Text size President Joe Biden speaking about the January jobs report. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images Good news for Main Street, not so good news for Wall Street. Once again, a booming labor market is like...

Forget About Inflation. Contrarians Expect a Recession and a Drop in Bond Yields.

“Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing,” as the famed financier Bernard Baruch once observed. And so I was reminded by a long discourse in the New York Times this past week on why bond yie...

When Is the Next Recession Coming? Here’s How to Time It

Fake it ‘til you make it might work in Silicon Valley. It’s a less practical strategy for the Federal Reserve, which looks ready to compound one mistake with another. The central bank’s statement on W...

The Market’s Priced in a Rate Rise. Now the Fed Has Lots of Other Issues to Decide.

Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this coming week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixon’s attorney general, John Mitchell, is what eco...

A Rising Misery Index Points to Four Rate Increases in 2022

Now, in the winter of our discontent, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Misery Index has made a comeback. Those of a certain age will recall it was a measure conceived in the 1960s by the economist ...

Fed Minutes Suggest More Stock-Market Turmoil Could Lie Ahead

Text size Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Sometimes you need to read something in black and white to believe it. That may explain why the stock market sold off sharp...