If Congress and the White House can’t agree to raise the $31.4 trillion government-debt ceiling, the government will likely default on some of its obligations. And the outlook for an accord between th...
Tag: Treasury bonds
U.S. Debt Default ‘Likely’ in Second Half of 2023: Bank of America
Many investors are concerned that with the far-right wing of the Republican Party holding sway in the House of Representatives, a debt default is coming. If the view of Ralph Axel, rates strategist at...
Fed Chair Powell Silent As Bond Markets See Recession, Rate Cuts
Often, it’s what isn’t said that deserves the most attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s decision to sidestep the issue of inflation and rate hikes during a central b...
Fed Rate Hikes Spawn 5% Yields for Safe Bonds
While the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases have sent stock prices reeling, they have sent bond yields soaring. And that has made bonds attractive for those of us looking to buttress the fixed...
Don’t Beat Yourself Up if You Missed the 9.62% I Bond Yield
People are rushing into I bonds so fast that the only place you can buy them, the government’s TreasuryDirect web site, crashed. The reason why investors are flocking to the site is that Oct. 28 is th...
Should You Be Looking at Bonds Rather Than Stocks?
With the S&P 500 index having dropped 18% this year, conventional wisdom has it that you should take advantage of the opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices. But at least for investors over 6...
You Know It When You See It
Bear market getty As Justice Potter Stuart said about pornography, you know it when you see it. The press won’t call it a bear market until it meets the official definition: a decline of 20% from the ...
The Correct Cash Allocation For Your Retirement Portfolio Is Zero
Your cash bucket has a real return of –8.4%. It should be empty. Zilch investing Bettmann Archive If you are in or nearing retirement, you have probably heard the lecture about a “cash bucket.” Put on...
Larry Summers Says a Recession is Likely on the Way
With inflation roaring, bond yields jumping and the Federal Reserve seemingly poised to impose big interest rate increases, fear of recession is rising. Consumer prices surged 8.5% in the 12 months th...
The Tail Risk In Credit Markets
In my career as a money manager I never traded credit products, but I was taught to watch them closely for early warnings of general market trouble. The story was that credit investors worry about mit...