Illustration by Chris Cash Text size About the authors: Arvind Krishnamurthy is the John S. Osterweis professor of finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Hanno Lustig is the school’s Miz...
Tag: Government Borrowing
Treasury yields jump after surge in U.S. job growth
Treasury yields jumped Friday, erasing what had been weekly declines for 2- and 10-year notes, after a much stronger-than-expected U.S. January jobs report clouded investor expectations for the Federa...
Debt-Ceiling Crisis: What Could Happen, According to History
The White House and Congress are locked in a standoff, once again, over whether to raise the debt ceiling—the legislative limit on the total amount of money the federal government is authorized to bor...
Yellen Says U.S. Expected to Hit Debt Limit Next Thursday
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told U.S. lawmakers the federal government was projected to reach its debt limit next Thursday, marking a starting point for what is likely to be a long and tense battl...
The Stock Market Is on a Tear. Don’t Ignore the Debt Ceiling.
It’s always fun until the bill comes due—and the bill always comes due. In fact, it’s coming due right about now. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress that the U.S. would hit its...
Treasury yields plunge on raft of U.S. data, handing 30-year rate biggest weekly decline since March 2020
Treasury yields plummeted on Friday after U.S. economic data pointed to signs of slowing wage growth and broadening weakness in the economy, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year rate into its biggest o...
Treasury yields plummet after signs of broadening weakness in economy
Friday’s raft of U.S. economic data produced a cascading drop in rates across the Treasury market, pushing the policy-sensitive 2-year and benchmark 10-year yields to their lowest levels of the new ye...
Treasury yields post record rise in worst year ‘within any of our lifetimes’ for bond investors
Treasury yields moved mostly higher in a holiday-shortened session Friday, capping a brutal, record-breaking bond-market selloff in 2022. Trading in U.S. fixed-income markets closed an hour early at 2...
U.S. stocks fall on last trading day of 2022, booking monthly losses and worst year since 2008
U.S. stocks ended lower Friday, booking their worst annual losses since 2008, as tax-loss harvesting along with anxieties about the outlook for corporate profits and the U.S. consumer took their toll....
Treasury yields end higher after U.S. inflation reading
Treasury yields ended a holiday-shortened New York trading session higher on Friday, cementing a weekly increase, after the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index, the Federa...
Benchmark Treasury yields firm but near recent lows on slowdown fears.
Longer-term bond yields rose on Monday, but remain near 3-month lows as investors continue to fret about a global economic slowdown. What’s happening The yield on the 2-year Treasury TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.18...
Yellen warns of ‘dangerous and volatile environment’ as she pledges to bolster Treasury market
““We’ve experienced energy shocks, food shocks, supply shocks, persistent inflation in many countries around the world, rising interests rates in many parts of the world and we have seen some financia...
‘Fragile’ Treasury market is at risk of ‘large scale forced selling’ or surprise that leads to breakdown, BofA says
The world’s deepest and most liquid fixed-income market is in big, big trouble. For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasurys market might be the so...
The debt vigilantes are back, and even U.S. assets will struggle. Here’s what to buy instead, says one veteran fund manager.
Markets are struggling to extend the previous session’s impressive rebound. There may be a number of reasons why a worse-than-expected inflation report was eventually shrugged off with such vigor on T...
Opinion: Stock markets will drop another 40% as a severe stagflationary debt crisis hits an overleveraged global economy
NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)—For a year now, I have argued that the increase in inflation would be persistent, that its causes include not only bad policies but also negative supply shocks, and that c...
Treasury yields pull back sharply amid concerns over Credit Suisse
Treasury yields pulled back sharply on Monday as investors assessed worries over the financial health of a large European bank and a gauge on the U.S. manufacturing sector produced the weakest reading...
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss Admits Mistake in Communicating Economic Plan
LONDON—U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss said that her government could have done a better job preparing financial markets for a surprise tax-cut plan funded by increased debt, but otherwise defended the ...
The next financial crisis may already be brewing, but not where many expect
A growing number of traders, academics, and bond-market gurus are worried that the $24 trillion market for U.S. Treasury debt could be headed for a crisis as the Federal Reserve kicks its “quantitativ...
U.K. may be on road to another IMF bailout, strategist warns
Is the U.K. on the road to an International Monetary Fund bailout? That’s the view of Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho Securities, as expressed in an interview on Bloo...
Ford’s green bond sees $5 billion in demand as Biden signs climate bill
Investors swarmed over Ford Motor Co.’s new $1.75 billion green-bond deal on Tuesday to help boost its development of more electric vehicles. Order books for Ford’s F, +0.67% speculative-grade debt de...
Is China Headed for a Lehman-Style Crisis? This Property Bust Is Different.
Text size The downturn in China’s property market is unlikely to lead to a meltdown that triggers a financial crisis. STR/AFP via Getty Images China’s property slump and suffering economy is lea...
Default Won’t Trigger a Long Winter for Russia
Failing to pay your debts can stop you getting a loan again. Except if you are a country—even Russia. Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution. Becaus...
Sanctions Push Russia Near First Foreign Default Since Revolution
Russia was poised to default on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. R...
Here’s why the stock market gets ‘squirrelly’ when bond yields rise above 3%
Stock-market investors seem to get jittery when the 10-year Treasury yield is trading above 3%. A look at corporate and government debt levels explains why, according to one closely followed analyst. ...
U.S. Debt Is Over $30 Trillion. Who’s on the Other Side of Those Liabilities?
About the authors: Paul J. Simko is the Frank M. Sands Sr. associate professor of business administration at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. Richard P. Smith is managing director...