Is the U.S. Economy In Recession? What the Fed—and Everyone Else—Got Wrong.

It was roughly a year ago, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused an oil-price shock and the Federal Reserve kicked off its interest-rate-tightening campaign, that forecasters began warning in e...

A Debt-Ceiling Fight Could Raise U.S. Borrowing Costs and Worsen Budget Deficits

Illustration by Chris Cash Text size About the authors: Arvind Krishnamurthy is the John S. Osterweis professor of finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Hanno Lustig is the school’s Miz...

Inflation data rocked the stock market in 2022: Get ready for Tuesday’s CPI reading

Few things moved the U.S. stock market last year like inflation data and the next reading is due this week. Under the spotlight is the January consumer price index, which is set to be released at 8:30...

‘Edge of a swamp’: JPMorgan strategist sees ‘one time only sale’ in fixed income as U.S. economy slows

Fixed-income yields “all look good,” and you might want to get some while you still can, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s David Kelly. It’s a “one time only sale,” said Kelly, chief global stra...

Inflation rate slows again to 15-month low, PCE shows, as U.S. economy weakens

The numbers: The cost of U.S. goods and services rose a scant 0.1% in December in yet another sign inflation is cooling off, opening the door for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates soo...

This recession indicator is close to the point of no return. But stocks historically rally if the Fed cuts and the economy still grows.

It’s way too early to proclaim a Goldilocks environment, even if major asset classes are at least pointing to a better chance of it. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.40% has gained 5% this year, and the tech-h...

Sell Microsoft Stock. The Software Giant Is Facing a Bad Economy, Says Analyst.

Guggenheim is getting more pessimistic about Microsoft stock on the risk of a slowing global economy. On Tuesday, analyst John DiFucci lowered his rating on software giant Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) to...

China Is Opening Fast. Don’t Miss the Rebound for Stocks.

Chinese authorities’ abrupt pivot away from zero-Covid policies has been matched by the quick shift in investor sentiment about Chinese stocks from the bearishness of the past year. As the world’s sec...

Why gold prices may be headed for record highs this year

Gold recently climbed to its highest prices in nearly seven months, feeding expectations that the precious metal is on track to notch record highs this year, after closing out 2022 with a modest loss....

Forget recession — the U.S. is heading for a ‘slowcession’ that could last all year, Moody’s warns

Even if the U.S. avoids a recession in 2023, American consumers and investors could face a grinding slowdown that likely won’t let up until 2024, according to a new outlook published by Moody’s Analyt...

Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ fame expects another ‘inflation spike’ after recession rocks U.S.

U.S. inflation may be receding for now, but investors should brace for another “spike” in the not-too-distant future, according to Scion Asset Management founder Michael Burry, who posted the warning ...

Big Banks Predict Recession, Fed Pivot in 2023

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The Bulls’ Worst Recession Fear: There Won’t Be One

“There ain’t gonna be no recession,” Pierre Rinfret, an economist who once advised the Nixon administration, confidently declared in December 1969. Better at attracting publicity than forecasting, he ...

Stock-market investors face 3 recession scenarios in 2023

With the U.S. stock market on track for its biggest annual decline in over a decade, fears that efforts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to bring down a surge in inflation will spa...

Dow ends over 350 points lower as investors weigh housing data, 2023 recession concerns

U.S. stocks finished sharply lower on Wednesday, as investors assessed economic data on the housing market amid concerns over rising interest rates and economic growth in 2023. How stock indexes trade...

Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a Recession? What to Expect in 2023.

If 2022 was the year U.S. investors came around to the reality of entrenched inflation and a reactionary Federal Reserve, 2023 will be the year they learn to live with both. Neither is likely to fade ...

7 financial advisers on what they are doing in 2023 to prepare for a recession

Getty Images/iStockphoto A number of high-profile financial firms are saying a recession is likely in 2023. Vanguard expects a “global recession,” Goldman Sachs economists give it a 35% chance, J.P. M...

Amid inflation and recession fears, 10 money moves you should make in 2023

Getty Images/iStockphoto While inflation is cooling, projections still point to elevated consumer prices next year. What’s more, recession threats remain high, unemployment may rise and investors are ...

The stock market is tumbling because investors fear recession more than inflation

A stock-market paradox, in which bad news about the economy is seen as good news for equities, may have run its course. If so, investors should expect bad news to be bad news for stocks heading into t...

Kohl’s, Macy’s, Toll Brothers, and 6 Other Stocks That Already Price in a Recession

The stock market has begun to reflect a high probability of a recession. Strategists at UBS screened for stocks that have clearly priced in that risk—and are worth considering. A recession seems in th...

Kohl’s, PulteGroup, Macy’s and 6 Other Stocks That Already Price in a Recession

The stock market has begun to reflect a high probability of a recession. Strategists at UBS screened for stocks that have clearly priced in that risk—and are worth considering. A recession seems in th...

Financial markets are flashing a warning that a recession is imminent: here’s what it means for stocks

Across markets, familiar trading patterns for stocks, bonds and commodities that have held for months are starting to unravel as financial markets grapple with expectations that the U.S. economy will ...

Jamie Dimon Predicts a Recession. M2 Money Supply Helps Make the Case.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon raised concerns about the economy sliding into a recession yet again on Tuesday. While the U.S. economy continues to be the strongest globally, rising interest rates and...

The U.S. economy won’t collapse under Fed’s ‘weight’ based on the performance of these sectors despite inflation and oil risks

Investors are trying to read the tea leaves in a choppy U.S. stock market to gauge whether its recent run higher can continue after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unleashed bullish sentiment at t...

‘Most economists are predicting a recession in 2023’: I own a rental property. Is it a good time to take out a bank loan and renovate — or should I wait?

Dear MarketWatch, Along with a sibling, I own a rental property of more than 40 rooms in the Caribbean, where we do weekly rentals.  It’s near downtown but in need of repairs and renovation.  Is this ...

It’s Time for the Stock Market to Worry About Recession

The stock market is so over the Federal Reserve—but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the woods just yet. Attention is now turning to the U.S. economy—and whether it sinks into recession will determine if...

13 Ways to Invest in India, the World’s Fastest-Growing Major Economy

India, home to more than 1.4 billion people, has long been a country with great promise and owner-led businesses accustomed to generating large amounts of cash. But India’s rise has been fitful, and o...

Alibaba Gets a Price Target Cut After Strong Earnings

Text size Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang maintained her Buy rating on Alibaba despite cutting her price target. AFP via Getty Images Alibaba Group Holding stock popped on Thursday, prompting an analyst...

The Stock Market Has Stopped Worrying About the Fed. It’s Time to Worry About Recession.

The stock market is so over the Federal Reserve—but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the woods just yet. Attention is now turning to the U.S. economy—and whether it sinks into recession will determine if...

Fed approves another jumbo interest-rate hike but also signals go-slower strategy

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved the fourth straight jumbo increase in a key U.S. interest rate and signaled rates are likely to go higher than previously forecast. Yet the central bank also ...

Millions of working Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck — and running out of cash as another recession looms

Inflation is taking its toll on people’s emergency funds. The share of workers who say they are living paycheck-to-paycheck has surged among middle- to high-income earners — 63% and 49%, respectively ...

China outnumbers the U.S. for the first time in this ranking of the world’s ‘best’ universities and U.S. economy will likely fall into recession, former Fed official says

Hi, MarketWatchers. Don’t miss these top stories. China outnumbers the U.S. for the first time in this ranking of the world’s ‘best’ universities Artificial intelligence is among the few fields that b...