First the easy part. Economists widely expect Federal Reserve monetary-policy makers to approve a fourth straight jumbo interest-rate rise at its meeting next week. A hike of three-quarters of a perce...
Tag: Debt/Bond Markets
250 years of history is telling investors to bet on Treasury bonds in 2023, Bank of America says
Benchmark U.S. Treasury bonds are facing their worst annual returns since 1788, but a big bounce is likely in the new year, along with a stock rout. That’s according to a team of strategists at Bank o...
Markets Could Go on a Tear After the Midterms, History Suggests
The autumn of 1991 was a stressful time for investors. The country had just been in a war in Iraq, interest rates were rising, and the U.S. economy was barreling toward recession. In other words, it w...
I Bonds Are Selling Like Crazy. Buy Now Before the Record 9.6% Rate Drops.
Text size Orders for I Bonds must be placed through the TreasuryDirect website. Dreamstime Hurry or you’ll miss out on one of the best deals in the bond market. The rate on the Treasury’s popular seri...
‘From Bambi to Godzilla.’ Strategist David Rosenberg skewers the Federal Reserve as he sees a 30% hit to home prices and the S&P 500 returning to an early 2020 low
The last time David Rosenberg shared his outlook for the U.S. stock market and the economy with MarketWatch, in late May, it was depressing enough. Rosenberg is the widely followed president and chief...
This hedge fund manager who made winning bets in 2020, says investors should brace for a decades-long bear market
On the heels of last week’s bullish turn for stocks, the setup is looking slightly less positive for Monday. Hong Kong stocks may be affecting the mood with a giant slump after China’s leader cemented...
Opinion: Liz Truss is out — why that might be good for your 401(k)
The British pound rose on the news that Liz Truss was standing down. (It’s now the best performing currency of the last month, if you can believe). The interest rate on British government bonds fell. ...
‘Mounting fear is that something else will break along the way’: Stock-market investors look ahead to PCE inflation data amid Fed overtightening worries
Some investors are on edge that the Federal Reserve may be overtightening monetary policy in its bid to tame hot inflation, as markets look ahead to a reading this coming week from the Fed’s preferred...
Why the housing market should brace for double-digit mortgage rates in 2023
Even if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts stopped hiking policy rates soon, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still would climb to 10%, according to Christopher Whalen, chairman of ...
‘Fragile’ Treasury market is at risk of ‘large scale forced selling’ or surprise that leads to breakdown, BofA says
The world’s deepest and most liquid fixed-income market is in big, big trouble. For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasurys market might be the so...
Vanguard ‘not confident’ U.S. Treasury rates have peaked after painful bond-market losses. Why ‘risk-reward profiles’ still appear more attractive across fixed income
U.S. Treasury rates may have yet to peak after surging this year, but higher yields have made bonds more attractive in tumultuous markets as investors face a likely recession next year, according to V...
UBS has released its annual house-price bubble report. Here are the most overvalued markets.
The housing market is in something of its own recession as mortgage rates have surged. If the economist consensus is right about an existing home sales report due later in the morning, then sales will...
Have the bond vigilantes who attacked the U.K. killed off modern monetary theory? MMT proponent Stephanie Kelton says that’s nonsense.
As investors assesses the remarkable turnaround in fiscal policy from one of the world’s number-six economy, the U.K., the one conclusion surely is that a nation’s financial flexibility is limited by ...
Why stock market investors should wait for the 10-year Treasury to ‘blink’
When a key part of the U.S. bond market starts shrugging off new Federal Reserve interest rate hikes or tough talk on inflation, it’s probably time to buy stocks, according to James Paulsen, the Leuth...
Want to keep beating the S&P 500 and at much lower risk? Bet on Buffett, and perhaps this younger clone, says fund manager.
Optimism from a bullish start to the week is set to spill over into Tuesday’s session, with stock futures tearing higher. That’s as Goldman Sachs — and Netflix later — will keep the earnings ball roll...
‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act’
Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Weal...
Stock market’s wild gyrations put earnings in focus as inflation crushes Fed ‘pivot’ hopes
Unrelenting inflation has dashed hopes for a quick pivot away from aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which in turn is undermining the U.S. corporate earnings outlook for 2023 and ...
Classic 60/40 investing strategy sees worst return in 100 years. How about 40/60?
Rules of thumb in investing appear to no longer apply in the carnage of 2022 in financial markets. Advocates for the 60/40 portfolio split, designed to capture the upside of stocks, but offer investor...
‘Growing wealth gap and rising inflation … hurt the global economy at almost every turn,’ Jamie Dimon says
What a difference 25 years can make. The world today is a markedly different place from the world that existed at MarketWatch’s inception in October 1997. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, +1.66% CEO Jami...
It turns out that bonds may be a riskier investment now than stocks
Stocks are riskier than bonds — everyone knows that. At least until this year. So far in 2022, long-term U.S. Treasurys have significantly underperformed U.S. stocks. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury E...
There’s no rush to buy I-bonds
This week’s worse-than-expected inflation report led to turmoil in more than one market, but you only read about one of them. The market that got all the headlines was in stocks, since in the wake of ...
Fed’s benchmark interest rate may peak above 5% after Sept inflation data, some economists think
When the Federal Reserve started to raise its benchmark policy interest rate by super-sized 0.75 percentage points in June this year, a few Fed officials and private sector economists talked about how...
This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot
The stock market’s reaction to the latest inflation report Thursday underlined just how confused and fearful investors are. The S&P 500 SPX, +2.60% plunged as much as 3% shortly after the open as ...
AMC unit Odeon Finco to offer $400 million of 5-year bonds to raise money needed to repay term loans
Odeon Finco Plc, a unit of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. AMC, -4.33%, said Wednesday it is issuing $400 million of senior secured five-year bonds in a private offering. Proceeds of the deal will be ...
Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher
With little or no progress made on bringing inflation down, the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday. “At some point, you know,...
Opinion: The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’
Don’t assume the worst is over, says investor Larry McDonald. There’s talk of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve as interest rates rise quickly and stocks keep falling. Both may continue. McDonald,...
Why I don’t want I-bonds
There’s been such a rush to buy “I-bonds,” inflation-protected bonds from the U.S. government, that the TreasuryDirect website crashed. I-bonds have been one of the hottest investments of the year. Pe...