The first half of 2022 has been a historically bad stretch for markets, and the carnage hasn’t been limited to stocks. As stocks and bonds have sold off in tandem, investors who for years have relied ...
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S&P 500 must fall another 15%-20% to price in recession, says Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley
The price is not right. That’s the verdict from strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who each warned as a new week kicked off that the stock market wasn’t fully pricing in a recession. And...
Is the U.S. stock market closed today? What investors need to know on Juneteenth.
U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday, June 20, in observance of the Juneteenth holiday, which commemorates the end of slavery in America. Officially known as the Juneteenth National Indep...
What the Fed’s biggest rate hike in decades means for the bear market in bonds
Historically bad. That’s how the mammoth $53 trillion U.S. fixed-income market has performed this year as the Federal Reserve works to curtail high inflation threatening to wreck the economy. To turbo...
Dow tumbles as inflation reading triggers market shock waves: What investors need to know
From Wall Street to Main Street, fears that the U.S. economy could be sliding into 1970s-style “stagflation” have been percolating. References to the sticky situation appeared in news headlines all we...
Peak U.S. inflation? This obscure corner of the financial market says otherwise
In a little-known part of the financial market that’s had the most accurate reads on U.S. inflation so far, traders are pricing in an annual headline rate on the consumer-price index of 8.5% or higher...
Here’s why the stock market gets ‘squirrelly’ when bond yields rise above 3%
Stock-market investors seem to get jittery when the 10-year Treasury yield is trading above 3%. A look at corporate and government debt levels explains why, according to one closely followed analyst. ...
Investors may be in for this rude surprise: History shows inflation can take years to return to normal even when Fed hikes above 10%
History can be a powerful tool, particularly in a high-inflation environment like this one in which no suitable economic model seems to apply. Inflation — running at 8.3% as of April, near a four-deca...
Fed’s quantitative tightening is about to arrive: What that might mean for markets
The Federal Reserve’s almost $9 trillion portfolio is about to be reduced starting on Wednesday, in a process intended to supplement rate hikes and buttress the central bank’s fight against inflation....
Dow books 4th day of gains, stocks rally after Fed minutes signal flexibility on interest rate hikes
Stocks closed higher Wednesday as investors took away a message of flexibility from the release of minutes of the early May Federal Reserve meeting about its path to higher interest rates. How did sto...
Next big shoe to drop in financial markets: Inflation that fails to respond to Fed rate hikes
Traders, investors and strategists are adding one more factor to the list of reasons why financial markets may be in for more volatility through at least the next three to four months: the likelihood ...
Why did the Dow plunge more than 1,000 points? Should I wait for stocks to sink lower? Here’s what some pros think.
What a difference a day makes. Fresh off the best percentage gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.12% since Nov. 9, 2020, the blue-chip index got clobbered, along with the rest of the st...
As Dow sinks over 1,000 points, signs of panic-selling emerge in stock market
Panicky behavior was starting to set in on Wall Street on Thursday, at least from a technical perspective, as the Dow industrials shed all of the previous day’s dramatic gains, and then some. Trading ...
How high can the Fed hike interest rates before a recession hits? This chart suggests a low threshold.
The days when the Federal Reserve could raise its benchmark interest rate significantly above 5% without sparking a recession may be a thing of the past, according to Wells Fargo Investment Institute....
The bond market has crashed. Why one strategist says embrace the pain and get back in.
Investors are more or less trained to think about assets in stock-market terms. That is, a correction is a 10% drop from its peak, and a bear market is 20% drop, etc. But not all assets are equal. In ...
Weekend reads: How to position your investments before the Federal Reserve causes a bear market
Do you remember all the times Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was quoted as saying inflation in the U.S. was “transitory”? With the Fed now ready to fight inflation, the bond market has quickly...
The news coming from this giant volcano is even gloomier than the new forecasts from the IMF and World Bank
Investors love looking at esoteric indicators for clues on how the economy is performing, and therefore how stocks, bonds and other assets will trade. How about looking at carbon dioxide emissions? Th...
You need to pay more attention to dividends — this math shows why they beat inflation
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – One of the best bear-market-protection strategies is hidden in plain sight: Dividend-paying stocks. Most investors pay little attention to them. Because the stock market’s dividend...
Recession fears and the stock market — Is it too late to play defense?
Recession fears are on the rise as the Federal Reserve gears up to fight inflation. Many stock-market investors are already playing defense and may wonder if those strategies have more room to run. Bu...
Recession is `the most likely’ outcome for U.S. economy, says Larry Summers
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, whose out-of-consensus views about the risks of persistent inflation have come true, is reiterating his concerns about a potential U.S. downturn: He now says a...
Why the stock-market rally may be nothing more than ‘wishful thinking,’ according to Morgan Stanley CIO
Listen to the bond market. That is the advice from Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, warning that recent resilience in stocks could be “nothing more than a be...
Here’s the playbook if the rest of the world breaks free from the U.S. dollar, says Credit Suisse’s monetary plumbing guru
It’s pretty well accepted that no one knows as much about the plumbing of the world’s financial system as Zoltan Pozsar, global head of short-term interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse, who was the ...
‘Calamity’ may be coming, stock-market setup similar to 1999: Jeffrey Gundlach
A “calamity” may be coming for markets, potentially in 2023, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of DoubleLine, warned Tuesday on stage at the Exchange ETF conferen...
Opinion: Stocks could drop 50%, Nouriel Roubini argues. Things will get much worse before they get better.
NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)—The global financial and economic outlook for the year ahead has soured rapidly in recent months, with policy makers, investors, and households now asking how much they sh...