Investors are preparing for the release of a U.S. consumer-price index that may show no meaningful letup in inflation, leaving few safe places to hide just as systemic risks may be growing. Coming jus...
Tag: BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
Stock market could ‘take it hard’ as expectations grow for a 6% fed funds rate
U.S. stock investors are clearly not too happy with what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said in the past two days. And there’s reason to think they’ll get even more dissatisfied in the wee...
Bond-market recession gauge plunges to triple digits below zero on way to fresh four-decade milestone
One of the bond market’s most reliable gauges of impending U.S. recessions plunged further below zero into triple-digit negative territory on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell point...
How investors can learn to live with inflation: BlackRock
Growth stocks may have led the early 2023 rally, but stubbornly high inflation means that won’t last. That’s the main message from the BlackRock Investment Institute on Monday, as U.S. stocks attempte...
Global financial markets have had a rough time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it is not over yet
A year after Russia invaded Ukraine and set off the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II, global financial markets seem to no longer carry on the lasting shocks on a daily basis, but the fu...
The bond market’s worst-case scenario isn’t a Fed rate of 6%. It’s this.
A doomsday scenario for bonds in 2023 wouldn’t be the fed-funds rate reaching 6% by July. A bigger worry would be if U.S. inflation that’s been slow to retreat starts heading higher annually, said Jas...
6-month T-bill rate rises to nearly 16-year high after release of Fed minutes
The yield on the 6-month T-bill rose to an almost 16-year high on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting indicated that all policy makers wanted to keep hiking interest rates....
Invest right now in the stock market? Why bother when cash could be king
The harder question for investors nearly a year into the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight is whether buying the dip in stocks is wise, or earning a cool 5% yield on safe-haven Treasury bills, a cash ...
‘The risk is that we’re going to hit the brakes very, very hard,’ Larry Summers says
“‘The risk is that we’re going to hit the brakes very, very hard.’ ” — Larry Summers Almost a full year of monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve appears to be having little impact on price...
Why the stock market’s ‘FOMO’ rally stalled out and what will decide its fate
A torrid, tech-led stock-market rally stalled out this past week as investors began to come around to what the Federal Reserve has been telling them. Bulls, however, see room for stocks to continue th...
Deeply inverted Treasury curve narrowly misses reaching 41-year milestone
A bond-market gauge of impending U.S. recessions fell just shy of reaching its most negative reading since October 1981, when interest rates were 19% under Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve. That gauge, ...
Treasury yields jump after surge in U.S. job growth
Treasury yields jumped Friday, erasing what had been weekly declines for 2- and 10-year notes, after a much stronger-than-expected U.S. January jobs report clouded investor expectations for the Federa...
Treasury yields plummet after signs of broadening weakness in economy
Friday’s raft of U.S. economic data produced a cascading drop in rates across the Treasury market, pushing the policy-sensitive 2-year and benchmark 10-year yields to their lowest levels of the new ye...
Treasury yields post record rise in worst year ‘within any of our lifetimes’ for bond investors
Treasury yields moved mostly higher in a holiday-shortened session Friday, capping a brutal, record-breaking bond-market selloff in 2022. Trading in U.S. fixed-income markets closed an hour early at 2...
U.S. stocks fall on last trading day of 2022, booking monthly losses and worst year since 2008
U.S. stocks ended lower Friday, booking their worst annual losses since 2008, as tax-loss harvesting along with anxieties about the outlook for corporate profits and the U.S. consumer took their toll....
Treasury yields end higher after U.S. inflation reading
Treasury yields ended a holiday-shortened New York trading session higher on Friday, cementing a weekly increase, after the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index, the Federa...
Stocks are closing out a dismal 2022 as the Fed fights inflation. Here’s what history says comes next.
Stock-market investors have plenty of reasons to feel gloomy heading into 2023: Inflation is still high, the housing market is sputtering and the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates by another ...
JPMorgan looks at ‘Armageddon scenario’ of Fed jacking rates up to 6.5%. Its conclusion may come as a surprise.
The market’s expectation is that the Federal Reserve will keep lifting its policy interest rate until it brings it to 5% before pausing for some time. But it’s possible that the Fed could decide that ...
Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
Who says bonds can’t be flashy? Investing in the nearly $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market and other forms of government-backed debt could be a good bet next year, particularly if another recession hit...
Most deeply inverted Treasury curve in more than 4 decades has one upbeat takeaway for investors
One of the bond market’s most reliable indicators of impending U.S. recessions is pointed in a pretty pessimistic direction right now, but contains at least one optimistic message: The Federal Reserve...
U.S. stocks have worst day in nearly three weeks as hawkish Fed speak, China worries rattle markets
U.S. stocks had their worst day in nearly three weeks on Monday as protests in China raised global-growth risks and Federal Reserve officials said more interest-rate increases will be needed to subdue...
Year-end rally? Bullish stock-market pattern set to collide with stagflation fears
The period between now and year-end marks a historically bullish final stretch of the year for U.S. stocks, particularly just before and after Christmas. The question for investors is whether favorabl...
Is the market bottom in? 5 reasons U.S. stocks could continue to suffer heading into next year.
With the S&P 500 holding above 4,000 and the CBOE Volatility Gauge, known as the “Vix” or Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” VIX, +0.74% having fallen to one of its lowest levels of the year, many invest...
2-year Treasury yield reaches one-week high as traders assess likelihood of more Fed rate hikes
Treasury yields jumped on Friday, sending the 2-year rate to a one-week high, after Boston Fed President Susan Collins put another aggressive 75-basis-point rate hike on the table for December’s polic...
This is the chart that rattled U.S. financial markets on Thursday
One chart is all it took to move financial markets on Thursday. That chart was presented by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as part of a presentation in Louisville, Ky., and it shows where he se...