Zion Williamson Or Brandon Ingram?

For all the time he’s missed over the course of his first four years, it’s easy to just say “trade Zion Williamson” and be done with it. Such a take requires no nuance, and seems to be built entirely on the merit of games played.

There’s more to the equation than just games played, and with Shams Charania of The Athletic reporting that the New Orleans Pelicans are interested in trading for the pick that becomes Scoot Henderson – presumably the second overall selection – now might be a good time to have the Williamson discussion, layers and all, since it’d take quite the return for the Hornets to relinquish that selection.

There’s no getting around the fact that, when healthy, Williamson is a Top 10 talent in the league. He’s unquestionably good enough as a lead guy, dropping over 25 points per game on ridiculous efficiency, and being one of the most physically dominant interior scorers in all of basketball.

Williamson has connected on over 60% of his shots during the course of his career. At just 6’6, he’s taken 68.6% of his shots from within three feet, converting at a frankly ridiculous 69.8% rate.

In the process of becoming one of the league’s most effective interior scorers, he’s also drawn a boatload of free throws, averaging 8.4 attempts per game for his career, sporting a FTr (amount of free throws per field goal attempt) of a whopping 51.2%.

Essentially, Williamson’s interior force is built perfectly for playoff basketball where high-percentage shots are as crucial as breathing. It really doesn’t matter who is on him, how tall they are, or how agile. He can overpower most defenders, and if not, he can outrun and outleap them as one of the most freakish athletes to ever set foot on an NBA court.

Making matters even worse for opposing defenses is the fact that Williamson can be used as a passing hub. He may not be Nikola Jokić, but he’s got a knack for playmaking, and reading defenses. He’ll even run the ball up the floor and initiate actions, even if the end-result is a score for himself. For a scorer that potent, Williamson is surprisingly unselfish, and extremely willing to work within an offensive scheme.

Next to him is Brandon Ingram, and this is where the conversation adds a significant layer.

Ingram and his 200-pound frame isn’t as physical as the 285-pound Williamson, nor is he as explosive, or as dynamic near the rim. Instead, he’s a slithery shooter who will attack from outside and in, leveraging his jumper to open up driving lanes, and taking what the defense gives him.

You might say Ingram is the counterweight to Williamson, both of them offering up a level of balance when they’re each on the floor.

Ingram has spent the last two seasons primarily alone, with Williamson having missed all but 29 games, and has thus been forced to evolve, and do more on his own accord. This season, the 25-year-old averaged 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, while cashing on 39% of his three-pointers.

Ingram became a pseudo point guard late in the season, and saw a significant increase in production with the ball more in his hands. Over the last 19 games of the season, Ingram averaged 27.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, looking noticeably more in-control and assertive than ever before.

In that period, he also got to the line 6.9 times per night, converting at a rate of 88.5%.

The leap from Ingram might not look like much statistically, compared to where he used to be, but he took control of the game in way we’ve never seen from him before. As the kids say, he leveled up. Coming into the 2023-2024 season, internal expectations in New Orleans of Ingram will be higher than those from a year before, exclusively due to the way he finished this year.

What this means, basically, is that the Pelicans might be on the threshold of witnessing Ingram evole into fully-fledged stardom.

This matters a great deal in potential deal with the Charlotte Hornets for the second pick in the draft. Whereas in the past, the Pelicans would have clearly opted to prioritize the upside of Williamson, and thus sacrifice Ingram in such a trade, now there’s at least a healthy discussion to be had about where to go from here.

The Pelicans are obviously aware that Williamson remain the best player, and the player with most upside. But the gap between him and Ingram has closed enough to where availability will now play a huge part in their internal discussions.

And for what it’s worth, Ingram hasn’t been a pillar of health himself, missing 64 games over the past two years. That’s still far fewer than Williamson, of course, but it’s something to take note of.

If the Pelicans are to pivot off one of Williamson or Ingram for the rights to Henderson, who in his own right has star upside, it’s crucial they get it right.

Trading Ingram means relinquishing an enormous presence of stability, perimeter dominance, and a player who looks to be on the cusp of being a high-end star in this league.

Trading Williamson means relinquishing the best player in the deal, one of the most effective scorers in basketball, and the player who overwhelmingly offers the higher ceiling.

If there ever was a Sophie’s Choice scenario for the Pelicans, this would be it.

As such, let’s turn our attention to Henderson, a rim-pressuring point guard, who is built like a greek god, has tremendous court vision, and would have gone first overall, had it not been for Victor Wembanyama.

From what we know, Henderson isn’t coming in with medical red flags, nor is he projected to have a body that continuously breaks down. He should be able to play, and play a lot, without much concern.

While Henderson isn’t much of a long-range shooter yet, he’s got a devastating midrange pull-up, and can get into the paint whenever he chooses. There’s shooting upside, but it’ll take a few years for that to materialize. In the meantime, you can expect him to be dangerous in transition, become a table-setter, and use his athletic nature to compete defensively.

There’s no question that Henderson and Williamson would be the most athletic pairing in the league. The pick and rolls between them could be stuff of legends, even if there isn’t much shooting between them, and they risk not sharing the floor all that much.

Henderson and Ingram would be a more grounded pairing, dissecting plays in the half-court, with Ingram offering more spacing to open up for drives for Henderson. It’d be less spectacular, but likely more sustainable.

And then, of course, there’s the option of staying put. The Pelicans could decide to simply not do anything, instead focusing on getting Williamson back on the floor to share it with Ingram, offering up one of the best forward dynamics in the NBA… when healthy.

Those final two words, though, carry a lot of water. Because as we’ve seen, health isn’t guaranteed for Williamson. He’s the perpetual carrot dangling in front of the Pelicans, but one they can’t seem to ever really catch, which brings us to the last point.

If Williamson returns for the Pelicans, but goes down once again with a long-term injury, that is the end for his current trade value. If you’re an NBA team, you might be able to talk yourself into Williamson right now, but if one more injury takes him out for months, good luck convincing ownership to take on his $194 million salary over the next five seasons.

Conclusively, if the Pelicans are to genuinely consider trading for Henderson, there’s really only one answer. Even if it hurts.

Trade Zion Williamson.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.