Zandon’s Fight To Beat Epicenter, And Bets You Should Make

As the 2022 Kentucky Derby’s post time draws toward us, it brings an inexorable focus to the bigger questions of the dozens that swirl around the athletes of this rich $3- million 148th running of the race on May 7. That’s not to say that our oft-overheated touts will bring us any closer to the answers to those questions, but we’ll definitely be treated to reams of analysis down on the nano-particle level. By far this Derby’s biggest and certainly most rare question is whether the extremely lightly-raced Zandon can stay the course, deal with the immense pressures of the race and live up to his (morning line) favorite status to land in the winner’s circle.

On the books, that’s a tall order. Epicenter, beloved by pundits far and wide before Mr. Mike Battaglia, Churchill’s esteemed oddsmaker, flipped Epicenter down to 7-2, crowning Zandon (3-1) with the top spot in the morning line on May 2, just hasn’t seemed as impressive on the maintenance rounds at Churchill. To boot, he’s drawn a terrible inside post position, three from Churchill’s race-killing rail. Zandon’s elevation early this week to the favored low man in the odds is an admirably more subjective sort of gamble by Mr. Battaglia. The garland is based on training, and one admittedly big race, the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9, when Zandon bested fellow Derby contender Smile Happy, whom Mr. Battaglia ratcheted down quite far at 20-1 in the morning line.

Put another way, Mr. Battaglia’s estimate of the Zandon is a dispatch on how he looks now, at Churchill, and it more than slightly discounts Zandon’s — at best, uneven — three career starts. In fact, as the world knows and Epicenter’s connections will not let us forget, Epicenter and Smile Happy raked Zandon over the coals in the Risen Star down in Louisiana in mid-February, in which Zandon ran third.

To help us unlock these and other mysteries of Kentucky Derby 148, we’ll call upon our trusted advisor and Kentucky-bred horseman, the Bluegrass Wise Man, who has been so generous with his analysis in many Triple Crown seasons past. Full disclaimer: The Wise Man, an owner, has no horses running in this year’s Derby, but he will be energetically betting the race.

First, an odds refresher:

(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line)

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1

2. Happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano, 30-1

3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 7-2

4. Summer Is Tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona, 30-1

5. Smile Happy, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 20-1

6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 8-1

7. Crown Pride, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire, 20-1

8. Charge It, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 20-1

9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1

10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 3-1

11. Pioneer of Medina, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo, 30-1

12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, 12-1

13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz, 20-1

14. Barber Road, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, 30-1

15. White Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, 10-1

16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 20-1

17. Classic Causeway, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux, 30-1

18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 20-1

20. Ethereal Road, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

(Source: Churchill Downs, May 6, 2022)

Note: These odds will change as the track opens for the Oaks races, and we’ll update them as they do. With no further ado, here’s the Bluegrass Wise Man ™.

So, why Zandon? Is it really the works? Or more of a sum of all things?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Couple of things. Mike Battaglia likes Zandon’s race in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. It was impressive and his workouts at Churchill since the Bluegrass have been impressive. He is a developing colt. Light on his feet, great mover. That said, it is a coin flip really between Zandon and Epicenter, and in that delicate scale, Zandon gets the nod from Battaglia because of his post position. Nobody breaking from the three hole has won the Derby since Real Quiet in 1998. Tall order for Mr. Epicenter.

Enlighten us please on Messier. He’s lurking back there and seems ready to spoil.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Messier looks like a big colt. He has been in the Bob Baffert program. He has tactical speed so he can put himself in the race. He has a good post. He may be near the front. The pedigree says he can get the distance. Big shot. No question. Is he good enough? His 15 length win two starts back came against a colt who has won twice and both on the turf.

Let’s return to Epicenter. Is the three hole really and truly that bad? Give us a picture of what he has to do to get past his post position.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I’m not sure his draw is terrible. The 20 stall gate may actually help in the sense he doesn’t have to make the right-hand turn out of the stall in order not to bounce off the rail. Which the old two-section gate definitely did make you do. In addition, Epicenter’s good from the gate. If he gets out quickly and cleanly — yes, it’s a big if — but if he does, he has a short way around. He’s also got good tactical speed, and I think he can put himself where he wants to be in the race. But there’s a lot out there on Churchill’s track that he has to do in that race besides get comfortable.