Young Voters’ Support For Democrats Slipped This Year, Poll Finds

Topline

Democrats’ narrow loss of the House may have been partially influenced by declining enthusiasm among younger voters, Associated Press data released Monday suggests, finding that while a majority of younger voters still backed Democratic House candidates in the midterms, they were less likely to do so than in federal races in 2018 and 2020—a possible issue for Democrats heading into 2024.

A table set up by the Washtenaw County Democratic Party outside a poling station for the 2022 … [+] general election at the University of Michigan on November 7.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

An AP VoteCast survey based on approximately 115,000 total voter interviews found that 53% of voters under 30 backed Democratic House candidates in the midterm elections, while 41% voted for Republicans.

That’s less than the 61% of under-30 voters who supported President Joe Biden in 2020, and down from 64% of voters ages 18 to 29 who voted for Democrats in the 2018 midterms.

Only approximately 25% of Democratic voters under 30 said identifying as a Democrat is “very” or “extremely” important to them, the AP reports, versus about one-third of older Democrats.

Young voters under age 45 were more supportive of Democrats in many key races this year than they were for Biden in 2020, including in gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Kansas and in Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

Voters under 45 were less supportive of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Hampshire and Nevada than they were of Biden, however.

Voters under 30 were more supportive of Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio’s Senate race than those ages 30-44, the AP found, splitting their support roughly equally between Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan, while 58% of those ages 30-44 backed Ryan.

Surprising Fact

Among young voters who did turn out for Democrats, abortion was likely a key motivator. Approximately half of young voters in the most competitive battleground states reported that the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade had a “major impact” on their vote, the AP reported.

Big Number

36%. That’s the share of voters under age 45 who identify as progressive Democrats, the AP found, as compared with 20% of those 45 and older.

Contra

The AP’s findings about youth support for Democrats are notably lower than Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), which tracks youth elections turnout. CIRCLE’s early data from the election, based on exit polling, found 64% of voters ages 18-29 backed Democratic House candidates, versus 36% for Republicans. That’s still slightly lower than the 67% of young voters who CIRCLE found backed Democratic House candidates in 2018, which the group notes was Democrats’ highest-ever margin of support with young voters. CIRCLE’s early data also projects that approximately 27% of voters ages 18-29 cast a ballot in the November midterms, which is second only to 2018 (when 31% of young voters turned out) since CIRCLE began tracking turnout in the 1990s.

Crucial Quote

“Youngest people also have the weakest partisan attachments, so they can be more susceptible to partisan swings nationally,” University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald told the AP, though he added the shift could be an anomaly driven by inflation..

Key Background

The reported slip in support among younger voters came after Biden saw his popularity decline among Gen Z Americans earlier in 2022. Multiple polls showed enthusiasm for the Democratic president had plunged from the year before as young people expressed discontent around issues like climate change, racial justice and student debt. A Harvard Youth Poll from October found that Biden’s popularity didn’t recover by the fall, with 39% approving of him versus 41% in the spring and 59% in spring 2021. Despite the drop in support that the AP found, Democrats have largely hailed the youth turnout in November’s midterms as being key to the party’s wins. Young voters have been an important voting bloc for Democrats but are hard to mobilize, historically voting in much lower numbers than older demographics, and Democrats have pointed to the CIRCLE data showing near-record youth turnout as a sign of success. Biden thanked young voters after the election, praising them for “vot[ing] in historic numbers again, just as they did two years ago.” While Democrats narrowly lost the House in the midterms, with Republicans winning a projected 221 seats to Democrats’ 213, the left otherwise had a successful midterm election, retaining control of the Senate and winning many key battleground state races for governor and other high-ranking positions.