New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge reacts in the dugout after hitting a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning of Game 3 of baseball’s American League Division Series, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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We’re now fairly deep into the postseason, so it’s time to take a final look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL and NL Cy Young races were examined a couple weeks back – today it’s the AL MVP race.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
This analysis covers the complete season, and all hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title were considered. That weeded out Rangers’ SS Corey Seager, who ranked #3 in last month’s update. Let’s get to it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Blue Jays’ DH George Springer (19.9 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average) charges onto the final Top Ten list. Only two players (#1 and #5 below) contributed more offensive value among AL players this season. He was a bit fortunate on balls in play across all batted ball types, but still “should have” batted a strong .282-.368-.542 this season. Yankees’ 1B Ben Rice (21.6 TPRAA) also finished strong and entered the Top Ten for the first time at season’s end. His bat is legit – only #1 and #2 below had higher overall average exit speeds than Rice’s 93.2 mph. He was quite unlucky on balls in play – he “should have” hit .291-.359-.549 this season. Guardians’ 3B Jose Ramirez (22.0 TPRAA) moves up a notch from #9 a month ago. Ramirez doesn’t hit the ball nearly as hard as the others on this list (88.9 mph overall average exit speed), but compensates with massive fly ball volume and ample baserunning and defense value.
Mariners’ CF Julio Rodriguez (22.1 TPRAA) finished with a rush to bust into the Top Ten at #7 at season’s end. His plate discipline remains a work in progress, but that’s the only missing piece. He hits all batted ball types quite hard, adds plenty of baserunning and defensive value, and retains hefty additional power upside as his 8.5 degree average launch angle has plenty of room to grow. Royals’ 3B Maikel Garcia (24.6 TPRAA) moves up from #10 a month ago to #6. He doesn’t drive the ball in the air (his 59 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is even lower than Ramirez’ 68), but hits his liners and grounders quite hard (with plenty of volume) and adds heaps of baserunning and defensive value.
THE TOP FIVE
#5 – 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) – 27.6 TPRAA – Guerrero’s offensive upside is staggering. He was the 2nd best offensive player in the AL according to this method despite non-elite fly ball authority (158 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). Guerrero crushes his liners and especially his grounders – his 146 Adjusted Ground Ball Contact Score is easily the highest of anyone we’ll discuss today. He gets docked pretty substantially for his lack of defensive/baserunning value, but moves up from 6th place a month ago.
#4 – C Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) – 40.9 TPRAA – Kirk also moves a spot from #5 a month ago. He and the next two players would both be viable MVP candidates in a normal season. Kirk is a much different, but ultimately somewhat comparable offensive player to Cal Raleigh. The Mariner receiver has edges in power (obviously) and durability, but Kirk was the better defender this season on a per inning basis by a fairly comfortable margin. He’s also the better pure hitter. He was quite unlucky on balls in play this season, and “should have” hit ,298-.365-.489. I’ll take the next five years of Kirk over the next five years of Raleigh.
#3 – C Cal Raleigh (Mariners) – 46.3 TPRAA – First of all, this is not a snub of Cal Raleigh – he had a great year. 60 homers for a catcher is a really big deal. But one has to look at the totality of his performance. He would have made the Top Ten on my ballot in both 2023 and 2024 (he finished 18th and 12th). His defense wasn’t as good this season, and there was a bit of air in his offensive numbers. He experienced good fortune across all batted ball types, and “should have” batted .237-.343-.540 this season. As good as he was, there’s almost as much difference between Raleigh and #1 below as there is between Raleigh and the average regular. There are some red flags moving forward as well – his 25.2 degree average launch angle is scary high – he gives away scads off free outs via strikeout and pop up.
#2 – SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) – 49.2 TPRAA – No, he isn’t going to finish in the top two of the actual AL MVP voting, but Witt’s fantastic year deserves recognition. His offensive game is great, especially for his position, but it isn’t the big story here. His plate discipline still has plenty of room to improve, and despite playing his home games in a pitchers’ park his numbers were actually a bit inflated overall, as his overperformance on grounders was greater than his underperformance in the air. The lead is his incredible defensive/baserunning value – his +30.8 combined runs in those areas was the highest mark in either league. He’s going to win one of these things.
#1 – RF Aaron Judge (Yankees) – 86.0 TPRAA – Not close, folks. And this is despite Judge losing some time (and defensive value) to an elbow injury that increased his usage as a DH. His 326 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was in a league of its own among this group, as was his 125 Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score. The .300 hitter is almost extinct in this day and age, but Judge won a batting title easily, and on merit, by doing it his way. Lots of fear-based walks, a respectable league average-range K rate, and exceptional batted ball authority across all batted ball types. His 95.2 mph overall average exit speed lapped this field.
Fangraphs WAR has Judge (10.1 fWAR), Raleigh (9.1) and Witt (8.0) topping the field, in that order.