XRP Price Signals Flash Bullish After 50% Recovery

Key Insights

• XRP Price, Exchange balances fell to five-year lows.
• Funding flipped deeply negative during sell-off.
• Spot ETFs logged steady institutional inflows.

XRP price recovered sharply this week after printing a 15-month low on Feb. 6. The token rebounded 50% to an intraday high of 1.67 dollars from 1.12 dollars, as traders reassessed downside risk. That move unfolded as derivatives positioning reset and exchange supply thinned, prompting renewed bottom speculation across the market.

The broader market remained fragile, yet XRP price showed relative resilience versus several large-cap altcoins. While the asset still traded over 60% below its multi-year peak of 3.66 dollars, on-chain and derivatives data suggested forced selling had eased. The shift occurred as leveraged positions unwound and institutional flows remained active through exchange-traded products.

Exchange Balances And Leverage Reset

Glassnode data showed XRP balances on centralized exchanges dropped to 12.9 billion tokens, a level last seen in May 2021. That contraction reflected a steady migration toward self-custody over the past two years. Lower exchange balances often indicate reduced immediate sell pressure, particularly after extended drawdowns.

CryptoQuant records revealed Binance’s XRP reserves fell to about 2.57 billion tokens, while both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages sloped downward. PelinayPA wrote in a Monday Quicktake that reserves declined even as price hovered near cycle lows. That structure historically increased the likelihood of short-squeeze conditions when liquidity returned.

CoinGlass data showed XRP futures open interest contracted to roughly 2.53 billion dollars, down 55% from early January peaks of 4.55 billion dollars. The decline suggested traders reduced exposure instead of adding fresh shorts. Such deleveraging often precedes volatility expansion once directional conviction returns.

Funding Rates And Spot Demand Flip

CryptoQuant derivatives metrics indicated Binance funding rates fell to minus 0.028% when price reached its February trough, marking the lowest reading since April 2025. Deeply negative funding reflected overcrowded short positioning and capitulation among leveraged longs. Historically, similar funding extremes preceded sharp countertrend rallies as short positions closed under pressure.

Comparable conditions in April 2025 were followed by a 65% rally that carried XRP toward 2.65 dollars from 1.60 dollars. That reaction mirrored prior late-2024 setups, when negative funding aligned with aggressive spot accumulation. In the current structure, funding normalization would signal that excess bearish leverage has cleared.

CryptoQuant spot data showed the 90-day taker cumulative volume delta flipped positive this week after remaining neutral for several sessions. The metric measures the net difference between aggressive buyers and sellers over a rolling three-month window. A sustained green reading implies buyers absorbed available supply at lower levels.

Institutional Flows Remain Intact

SoSoValue figures indicated U.S.-based spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded inflows on 53 of 59 trading days since their November 2025 launch. The products added 4.5 million dollars on Friday, bringing cumulative inflows to 1.23 billion dollars. Total net assets under management exceeded 1.01 billion dollars despite recent market weakness.

Weekly digital asset fund data showed global crypto investment products logged outflows totaling 173 million dollars during the week ending Feb. 13. In contrast, XRP exchange-traded products led with 33.4 million dollars in inflows. That divergence suggested selective institutional positioning rather than broad risk aversion.

The persistence of ETF allocations provided a structural bid beneath XRP price even as derivatives markets reset. Institutional vehicles typically operate on longer time horizons than perpetual futures traders. This dynamic reduced the probability of disorderly liquidation cascades following the February washout.

XRP price now faces immediate resistance near the 1.70 dollar region, where prior breakdowns accelerated in January. If spot demand persists and funding normalizes, traders will monitor whether price can establish acceptance above that band. Failure to hold recent gains would shift focus back toward the February low as the next critical reference.