XRP Price Prediction Eyes 16% Rally, But Can September Break The Trend?

Key Insights:

• XRP price prediction: XRP ended August with over 8% losses and slipped another 1.53% to $2.77 as September began.
• On-chain signals show weakness: Chaikin Money Flow at -0.14 and negative Bull-Bear Power confirm selling pressure.
• Heavy short bias of $1.77 Billion versus $327 Million in longs makes a short squeeze the only major bullish trigger for the XRP price prediction, with upside potential of 16% toward $3.16.

XRP ended August with heavy losses. It slipped more than 8% during the month and started September on the wrong foot.

Over the past 24 hours, it fell another 1.53%, trading near $2.77 at press time. The weakness in price is tied to falling capital inflows and heavy short positioning in the derivatives market.

Still, history shows that September has sometimes surprised XRP holders with strong gains. These mixed signals mean traders are watching the XRP price prediction levels closely to see if this month brings more downside or a sudden reversal.

Capital Inflows Signal Weakness

On-chain data shows that large buyers, often called “whales,” are not putting fresh money into XRP right now. This is captured by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF measures whether more money is flowing into or out of a token. When the value is positive, it suggests buying pressure. When it is negative, it means selling pressure dominates.

At press time, CMF for XRP stood at -0.14, which is a strongly negative reading. In simple terms, more capital is leaving XRP than entering it. That shows that institutional buyers and large traders are sitting on the sidelines or even pulling out.

Another tool, the Bull-Bear Power (BBP), helps measure the balance between buyers and sellers.

It compares the highest and lowest price points of each period and shows whether bulls or bears are in control.

Currently, BBP readings for XRP are negative. That means sellers have taken the driver’s seat, and buying pressure has faded.

When both CMF and BBP flash red at the same time, the message is clear: XRP does not have strong support from either big money or retail traders.

This explains why the token has struggled to hold the $2.73 level and why risks of more losses remain.

Key XRP Price Prediction Levels for September

Traders look at past price moves to decide where to buy or sell, and these areas become zones of support or resistance. And some key levels have surfaced with XRP closing in on critical support levels.

For XRP, $2.73 is the level to watch first. Analysts say that if the token closes a daily candle below this point, the next likely stop is $2.66.

If that also breaks, bears could push prices further down toward $2.40. This is a level where a large number of liquidation orders are present, which means traders who borrowed money to bet long could be forced to sell.

And that could trigger another collapse. But history doesn’t give a reason for pessimism.

In September 2022, XRP jumped by more than 46%, surprising most traders. In 2024, it gained about 8%. Even in 2023, when the market was relatively flat, XRP still finished the month slightly higher at +0.42%.

These numbers show that while September often looks weak in the beginning, it can flip and deliver gains later. But that would be possible if the XRP price doesn’t break the key levels mentioned earlier.

This history adds an extra layer of uncertainty. Traders know September has delivered both big rallies and flat months in the past, so they remain cautious but alert to sudden moves.

Short Squeeze Could Change Things Quickly

The biggest wildcard for XRP in September does not come from inflows or support levels. It comes from the derivatives market.

Data from Bitget alone shows that more than $1.77 Billion worth of short positions are currently open on XRP, compared to only $327 Million in long positions. This means the vast majority of traders are betting against the token, expecting it to go lower.

But this imbalance creates a dangerous setup for short sellers. If XRP rises instead of falling, traders with shorts could be forced to close their positions quickly. This process is called a short squeeze. When a squeeze happens, it adds fuel to the upside because closing shorts requires buying back the asset.

In XRP’s case, analysts believe a squeeze could trigger a rally of about 16%, pushing the token closer to $3.16. That would catch many traders off guard, since the market is currently positioned almost entirely to the downside.

For now, this remains the only clear bullish trigger for the XRP price prediction to get validated. Without a short squeeze, the indicators and price charts still suggest a slow September with bearish bias. But if one does unfold, the move could be sharp, fast, and painful for short sellers.