XRP Price Flirts With Breakout; Will ETF Bets and Token Unlock Tip the Scale?

Key Insights:

• XRP price has surged 355% YTD and is testing a key resistance zone at $2.48
• Ripple’s 1B token unlock and SBI’s $703M transfer raise fresh speculation
• ETF optimism and dormant whale wallets may decide the next move

XRP price is pressing against a decisive resistance zone just as the asset celebrates a 355% YTD rally. With bullish whispers around ETF approval gaining traction and Ripple’s scheduled 1 billion XRP token unlock landing today, market watchers are asking: Is this the real breakout or just another pause?

XRP Price Technicals Suggest Strength, But Not Confirmation Yet

The XRP price recently touched $2.21, flirting with the upper boundary of a descending triangle formation. The semi-breakout from the upper trendline is technically promising, with volume steadily rising; however, conviction still requires confirmation.

RSI hovers near 58, suggesting growing strength but not yet euphoric buying. Fibonacci retracement levels plotted from early to late June highlight $2.30 and $2.45 as local resistance; both levels are currently being tested.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds a layer of intrigue. The indicator shows rising momentum, with recent peaks loosely mirroring price prediction highs, suggesting that smart money could be re-entering. Yet until CMF sustains above +0.15, the signal remains cautious.

Ripple’s Unlock and SBI’s $703 million Transfer Stoke Speculation

Ripple’s July 1 unlock of 1 billion XRP is now in motion. It’s part of their regular monthly escrow release, but this time, the timing stands out. Just days earlier, SBI Holdings (Strategic Business Innovator Group) moved 320 million XRP (around $703 million) to a new wallet.

The transfer, done through SBI VC Trade, has sparked talk of internal reshuffling or prep for something bigger on the institutional front.

Past unlocks have had mixed effects on price. After the Feb 1, 2025, release, XRP dropped 7.5% in two days, from $2.12 to $1.96. But the April 1 unlock led to a rally from $1.84 to $2.27 within a week. That contrast shows these unlocks don’t work in isolation.

When paired with things like clearer rules or big whale moves, they tend to matter more.

XRP ETF Odds Climb After Legal and Regulatory Wins

The ETF angle has also resurfaced after Bloomberg analysts revised their odds for an XRP-backed product to 95% by early 2026.

The narrative: if Ethereum can secure ETF approval based on regulatory clarity and decentralization, Ripple’s recent legal wins and Japan’s proactive stance may unlock XRP’s next growth phase.

Dormant Wallets Move, Profit-Taking on XRP Price Spikes

On-chain, the signals are mixed but telling. Dormant circulation has ticked slightly up, suggesting that some long-held XRP is finally moving. This pattern often precedes either profit-taking or new wallet reallocation.

Meanwhile, the ratio of transaction volume in profit vs. loss has spiked, suggesting that more traders are exiting in green; a common trend near local tops or breakout points.

Yet the total holder count continues to rise, and new wallets are accumulating small amounts; a classic sign of retail participation. Whether this wave can carry XRP price past $2.60 without whale support remains the big question.

As XRP price prediction coils near the edge, the next 48 hours may be decisive. With ETF sentiment turning bullish and Ripple’s unlock complete, this level testing might be more than just another technical retest. All eyes now turn to see if volume and conviction catch up.