Key Insights:
- XRP price data and on-chain metrics are starting to look like early 2022, according to Glassnode.
- Over the past week to a month, newer investors have been building positions at lower prices.
- When new buyers keep stepping in while longer-term holders stay under pressure, rallies rarely get a clean run.
Glassnode data suggests XRP’s on-chain picture is starting to look like early 2022. Back then, a similar setup came right before a long stretch of weakness.
Even with the pullback, XRP price has not fallen apart. Ripple coin is still holding a bit above $1.90 at the time of writing, even after a choppy week that knocked it down more than 13%.
Zoom out, and XRP is still a heavyweight in the market. It ranks fifth by market value, with a market cap of nearly $115.7 billion. That scale is backed by sheer supply too, with roughly 60.8 billion XRP currently in circulation.
XRP Price Signals a Feb 2022 Repeat as Recent Buyers Face Pressure
Glassnode data shows a clear split of where XRP price is sitting across different buyers.
Over the past week to a month, newer investors have been building positions at lower prices. Meanwhile, many holders who bought six to twelve months ago still carry a higher average entry level.
That gap matters because it puts traders in two different situations. When new buyers keep stepping in while longer-term holders stay under pressure, rallies rarely get a clean run.
As XRP price lifts, many of those older holders use the bounce to cut risk or finally exit trades that have weighed on them for months. That Ripple coin selling shows up quickly and can stall the move.
This split matters even more when most of the market is already sitting on gains. With more than 70% of the supply in profit, any rally invites profit-taking for Ripple coin.
Add that on top of the break-even sellers near the top, and upside moves face heavier resistance than they first appear. If XRP price stalls, that mix can quietly build steady selling pressure.
Ripple News: XRP Price Setup Mirrors 2022 Bull Fractal
Price action data by Glassnode spotlighted a similar setup in February 2022 when XRP price hovered near $0.78. The Ripple coin price then fell for months and tested a multi-month low around $0.30.
This setup is taking shape while XRP price keeps stalling around the $2 mark. It has become a real line in the sand for the market, shaping how holders react every time the price gets close.
And since mid-2025, Glassnode data has pointed to the same behavior repeating on each visit.
Each time XRP price retests $2, realized losses jump to roughly $500 million to $1.2 billion per week. In other words, many investors treat that zone as an exit ramp, not a place to buy more.
That track record has turned $2 into a psychological line for XRP traders. When the price sits below it, higher-cost holders start to feel the heat and wait for any rally that lets them get out whole.
At the same time, short-term buyers often step in lower and build positions.
XRP USD Price Prediction: A Descending Channel Still Frames the Downtrend
According to TradingView’s 4-hour chart, XRP price began trending lower before sliding into a falling channel. Buyers attempted to push the price up earlier this month, but sellers pulled back the rally around $2.30.
Since then, Ripple coin price has dropped below the 50-period and the 200-period simple moving averages. This suggests a bearish picture in the near-term
Even more important, those moving averages have flipped into resistance. They now sit around $2.05 to $2.10 and keep stopping any rebound attempts.
The recent candles back this up with a series of strong red candles indicating the last leg down with several other smaller and newer candles.